Have the Phillies Started Their Engines Yet?

After a few questionable weeks of the 2009 baseball season, it looks as though the Phillies are finally getting down to business after a weekend sweep of the division leading Florida Marlins. The last game, the team exploded for 13 runs as the get their record over the .500 mark and within a game and a half of the top. The main point here being if they can maintain a little bit of this momentum and finish the month with more wins than losses.

In the beginning, it looked as if Raul Ibanez was going to have 170 RBI, but he has cooled. At the same time other guys like Chase Utley and Shane Victorino have picked it up and helping them win these much needed early games. Ryan Howard, who has been relatively quiet with only three home runs to date, has at least kept his average respectable at .290. Luckily for the Phils, as the weather gets hotter, so typically does Howard.

The starting pitching on the other hand is surely not indicative of a team even close to even in the standing department. Of all the starters, Brett Myers has the lowest ERA, and that is 4.91. Jamie Moyer just picked up his third win, so maybe he is getting back to his 46 year old form. Cole Hamels, well, we’ll have to see whether that shot he took to his arm last week will actually affect his game. He said he wouldn’t miss a start, so I can at least be hopeful.

The Phillies are not supposed to count on the Mets collapsing and the Marlins and Braves withering away at the end of the year. They cannot rely on winning eighty percent of their games the last two weeks of the season. They must take control now, while they can, and get into first place. From that point they can work on staying there and building a lead that they won’t have to worry about surrendering once the last month of the season rolls around. But in order to do this they must start their engines and keep them in high gear for as long as possible and barring multiple injuries, they should be able to simply maintain.

Right as of this moment, they are 9-8, which can easily turn into 9-11 if they are not conscious of the fact that last year was the first winning April that the franchise has had in years. And what happened last year? That’s right, a championship. If they come out ahead this month, then staying ahead should be easier when they guys that start slow start coming out of their slow starts. Hopefully, the pitching will bring itself together so that the offense doesn’t need to score thirteen runs a game although it would be nice.

Horrid Pitching by the Phils

Monday night’s Phillies game was called due to rain, and that might have been a good thing. The pitching has been horrid, inconsistent, and resembling nothing like the staff that took the mound last year, despite coming into the year looking like the strength of the team. Instead, from Cole Hamels to Brad Lidge, Phil’s fans have watched this team put up good offensive numbers, only to hover just shy of .500 ball. And despite his claim to the blame, it all can’t fall on ole Cole.

Hidden by this dark shadow of underperforming hurlers are a couple of bright spots that have undoubtedly helped this team avoid pure freefall. Raul Ibanez has put up a couple weeks of play by batting .386, leading the team in dingers and driving in 12 runs. More that what could have been expected from Pat the Bat, he has taken his spot in the lineup and just about eliminated the whole too many left handed bats cries. He still may not be worth the money he’s getting, especially when compared to Burrell’s deal with the Rays, but come season’s end, his consistency and overall ability to hurt the baseball, early naysayers might be speaking in a different tongue.

Should he keep it up for the next week and a half, Ryan Howard is having his best April since his MVP year in ’06. Gone could be the days where Ryan hits below his weight, as he came into the season in great shape. Whatever he did in the offseason certainly seems to have worked, and although he hasn’t put up crazy power numbers, he is holding his own batting .341. And when his power does switch on, and it will, watch out. I would even be willing to say that if he hits six home runs in April, he’ll hit fifty for the year, easily. In the meantime, he needs to simply maintain.

A third bright spot in the young Phillies season is the apparent return to health for Chase Utley. Many, including me, were unsure just how he would do following the hip injury, but obviously he’s fine. Batting .366 and what looks like to be well on his way to another All-Star caliber season. Chase is possibly the most important member of the team as he has the ability to carry a team when he is healthy. Where Jimmy Rollins is who provides the energy, or fuel to make this team go, Utley is the guy who keeps the team on track.

My hope is that the pitching comes together, that Brad Lidge doesn’t implode, Jamie Moyer turns fifty overnight, and that Cole isn’t a heartbeat away from arm trouble. It is the pitching that must pull through, because no matter how many runs Raul, Chase, and Ryan drive in, it won’t be enough to keep up with the runs given up. Right now, it’s early, a month from now there will still be time. Two months though, it may be getting to the brink when if the pitching hasn’t turned itself around, the chances of repeating would have shrunken as if they were in fifty degree seawater.

Breaking Down the NL East: Starting Pitching

Back in the 1980’s the NL East had some dominating pitching that mowed down opposing hitters. Steve Carlton began the decade for the Phils as one of the most intimidating southpaws in history and led into the phenomenon known as Doc Gooden. Gooden carried the Mets staff to a 1986 World Series Championship but was doomed due to his personal issues. The early 90’s saw the blossoming of the likes of Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, and Pedro Martinez to name a few. Today, Johann Santana and Cole Hamels lead the pack with young pitchers like the Marlins’ Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson look to come into their own. On the opposite ends of the spectrum are Jamie Moyer and the now older Tom Glavine, both in the twilight of their careers, yet somehow remaining effective enough to remain in the league. I evaluated the starters on various categories, putting the heaviest weight on wins, ERA, and WHIP creating a “productivity” number. Here are my rankings for the National League East’s Starting Staffs.

First (Score 2.57): The New York Mets would probably be lost without their ace, Johan Santana (pictured) as the rest of the staff is made up of a prospect coming of age (Mike Pelfrey), an inconsistent pitcher who can be really good or really bad (Oliver Perez), a once promising starter who was hindered by injuries (John Maine), and a journeyman now in his 13th year and 7th team (Livian Hernandez). Santana ranked the highest of all of the starting pitchers in the division. He brings up the team’s average in nearly every category leading the pack with a productivity number of 5.5. If his team will hit behind him, he may be odds on favorite to win the NL Cy Young award.

Second (2.25): The Phillies of 2008 were extremely fortunate that their pitching remained in tact last year. Brett Myers was sent down to the minors midseason and returned a solid No. 2 behind Cole Hamels (pictured), who for some strange reason received no run support from the league’s most offensive team. The ageless wonder of Jamie Moyer pulled together 16 wins and Joe Blanton came to the Phils via Oakland and went 4-0 before having the postseason of his life. Kyle Kendrick will not be on the starting staff this year and is replaced by Chan Ho Park for found his competitive edge after being banished to the bullpen for the past several years. JA Happ, who will/should start the year in the pen may be counted on to start as well. Hamels finished second in the division with a score of 4.19 and Moyer slipped into the fifth spot in the NL East at 3.25.

Third (2.14): This is not the same Atlanta Braves pitching staff that won so many division titles, so many games, and now is left to fill spots with quality arms with guys who have names like Jurrjens and Kawakami. Derek Lowe (pictured) anchors this group and will have to win twenty games if the Braves are to be on the winning side of .500. Javier Vazquez has hoodwinked another team into thinking he can help them win, despite a career 127-129 record. Jurrjens had a decent year as a rookie. Now that teams have a book on him, we’ll see how well he does in 2009. Kawakami is a Japanese import and my guess is that he’ll be somewhere between Dice-K and Hideki Irabu. The all familiar name of Tom Glavine rounds out the rotation and as long as he can be effective, they’ll keep the 42 year old on the team. His season last year though (2-4, 5.54 ERA in 63 innings), wasn’t a good sign for things to come.

Fourth (1.56): There are no Josh Becketts, A.J. Burnetts, or Brad Pennys on this Florida Marlins team, Dontrelle Willis is even gone. Some might ask who’s left to pitch. Well, that’s a good question. Ricky Nolasco (pictured) is a big league pitcher for sure as he went 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA last year and is young enough to expect improvement. After Ricky, there’s Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, Anibal Sanchez, and Andrew Miller. All young, all unproven. Given that the NL East is chock full of experienced hitters I’m unsure just how they’ll do. Marlins prospects seem to be unlimited in their ability to mature quicker than others, so maybe they’ll be ok. In reality, the offense will probably have to carry the load if Florida wants to finish even in fourth place in the division.

Fifth (1.06): The Washington Nationals’ pitching staff is hardly worth mentioning. That organization hasn’t had a decent pitcher since they were in Montreal. Now they’re going to throw John Lannan (pictured), Scott Olsen, Daniel Cabrera. They are decent, but I don’t know that they are anything other than fourth starters on much of the other staffs around the league. Then add Jordan (not Ryan) Zimmermann and Shairon (that’s a dude’s name) Martis and you are looking at a 100 loss season. Is baseball really back in the Nation’s capital? It is if you are counting the visiting team. I’m sorry D.C. fans for being harsh, but pitching is key in this game and the Nationals don’t have it.

All this of course is barring injuries which are key to the success or despair of any team. If Johan or Cole goes down, then the whole landscape changes. From top to bottom I think the Phillies have the best rotation and while the New York Mets don’t exactly have slouches, the staff will lead the Phils to their 3rd division title. Heaven forbid Mike Pelfrey be a bust for the Metropolitans, because if he is, or hits a sophomore snag, then everything will rest on Santana.

One more in the Breaking Down the NL East series….the bullpen.

Phillies Notes to Note

The Phillies recently released fourth outfielder Geoff Jenkins (below), making room for a move that will improve the club and their bench strength. They have two options, neither of them particularly bad. First, the Phillies have already been in contact with Gary Sheffield, showing interest in the former Tigers DH who is just shy of 500 home runs. The second would be Andruw Jones, still under contract with the Texas Rangers. While it is doubtful that either would get a full time playing gig with the Phils, they would provide a much needed right-handed bat off the bench to go with lefties Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, and Chris Coste. The Phillies will eat the eight million dollars still left on the Jenkins' contract.

Gary Sheffield has fallen upon hard times. Since leaving the Yankees the forty year old Sheffield had shown a steady decrease in his ability at the plate. Add to the fact that he no longer can play anything but DH or First Base, and he doesn’t provide that much to a Phillies team looking to repeat. On the other hand, from what I understand, the Phillies would only have to pay him $400,000 which is a bargain for a veteran bat.

The Phils are also looking into a trade for Andruw Jones, who despite ripping off the Dodgers for $14+ million; can still play the field. They would probably only have to give up a low level prospect for him or a journeyman in the system that wouldn’t make the big league club regardless. The Phils have a history with the Rangers too. They traded Vincente Padilla to the Rangers a few years back and recently received John Mayberry Jr. in a deal for Greg Golson. He would be a better fit for the Phillies since he still owns a glove and should still no how to use it. The big question surrounding Jones is whether or not he can regain his form from the earlier part of this decade, for from two years ago for that matter, or whether the overweight, lackadaisical shell of a former All-Star is all that is left.

The Phillies named their fifth starter, and his name is Chan Ho Park. Park had an outstanding spring and took full advantage of the opportunity to crack the rotation after spending the last few seasons coming out of the bullpen. He beat out expected starter JA Happ, who may either join the pen as long relief, or temporarily be sent to AAA. Happ will regardless be spending plenty of time on the big league roster. This solidifies the starting staff as Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Moyer, and now Park.

As the Phillies roster rounds itself out there are few surprises, with possibly the exception being Jenkins’ release. But despite that, the pitching staff looks in better shape than it did a year ago and the addition of Jack Taschner will help fill the void during the J.C. Romero suspension. Should Philly pick up either Sheffield or Jones, it will be interesting to see who the odd man out will be, although Stairs is the most likely candidate.

Does The Phillies Season Rest On Cole's Left Arm?

When news came down that Cole Hamels felt some discomfort in the throwing arm, people were getting themselves ready to jump off of the Ben Franklin Bridge in total and utter despair. Well, yesterday he threw in a minor league assignment and all went well so far, but that led to a question. Does the Philadelphia Phillies season rest in Cole’s left arm? He is possibly the most important individual to the team, but does his health determine how far the Phillies can go? I don’t know. Last year we saw the team struggle without Jimmy Rollins, yet succeed to a modest degree when Ryan Howard struggled. The team also seemed to go get by with Chase Utley’s bad hip, but through it all, the pitching staff remained intact.

Cole Hamels is easily the ace of the staff, but he pitches once in every four or five games. That can be vital in the role of the stopper, but the more important player for winning may be the closer. Brad Lidge nailed down every game he played. He took the possibility of winning a game and made it a certainty. Look at the Mets last year. The reason they didn’t win was not how Pedro or Johann pitched, but through the implosion of the bullpen and their inability to keep a lead. That was what got the Phillies into first place. Well, that and the fact the Howard went on an unbelievable September tear.

While Cole would be a great loss, it is easier to fill the void of an injured starting pitcher than a closer. One could juggle the rotation, throw J.A. Happ in the back end of the starting staff and although the potential for winning would be decreased a bit, it wouldn’t evaporate. Take away Brad Lidge, particularly early in the season, and who’s going to be the closer? Ryan Madsen? Perhaps, but regardless of who comes out of the bullpen in the ninth inning, it wouldn’t be the same. Madsen did become a pretty good setup guy down the stretch, however I doubt many would say that he wouldn’t have blown a save all year.

This isn’t an argument for the ages, so I won’t beat it into the dirt. I will say however, that if the Phillies lose a starting pitcher, even the already immortalized Cole Hamels, I think the team will manage. Now, if Lidge is lost…well, that’s a different story. I won’t go diving off of Big Ben, but I’ll certainly think about it when I drive over Betsey Ross.

The Philadelphia Phillies Are Brilliant

It would appear that the chastity belts have been removed from the purse strings of the Phillies ownership. For years the mentality of being a second-rate team in a small market has weighed down the thinking that paying for players with a higher quality of potential and talent can lead to a championship. And what do you know? This past off season has been one of the most productive the Phillies have ever had. They resigned every player that was arbitration eligible. The one big piece of the World Series team who was eligible for free agency, Pat Burrell, was allow to leave but was replaced by a player who could be just as effective as a hitter, and probably a bit better in the field. Otherwise, the likes of Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, and ace Cole Hamels will help lead the Phils back to the post season.

Now in recent events, the Phillies have made their most brilliant move to date. They have locked up Ryan Howard, perhaps the most prolific power hitter (Albert Pujols noted) in the past decade. What he has done in his short career is unparalleled by any Phillie. Signing Howard to a three year, 54 million dollar contract was the best thing they could do for both sides. I have previously written about what has gone on between the two parties and while I am not shocked that they got a deal done, I am a bit surprised that it seems that Ryan shortchanged himself on the back end of the deal. The contract calls for 15 million dollars this year, 19 next year, and 20 the third year, which by then could be a real bargain if he continues the way he has. It also forgoes the next few years of arbitration which only created an environment of contention and allows Ryan to focus on getting prepared for the upcoming season. A happy Howard is a vital piece to repeating last year's performance, especially with the prospect of Chase Utley missing the beginning of the season

Now it seems that the team is in place for a run at defending its championship. With the only real questions being the fifth starter and J.C. Romero's temporary replacement, Ruben Amaro Jr. and Charlie Manuel should not only be set up this year, but perhaps the next three, just as long as they are able to find the pitching they need. They have Joe Blanton and Jamie Moyer for one more year. After that they'll need to replace one or both. It could be through the promotion of JA Happ or Carlos Carrasco, both of whom are vying for the 5th starter spot this year, and we shall see how they work out in spring training. The Phils also have some trade bait to dangle if need be. Jason Donald performed well on the Olympic squad as well as the Arizona Fall League and could even make the big league roster if Utley isn't ready for opening day. But for the time being, instead of getting to far ahead of ourselves, let's focus on this year.

This year the Phillies division got a little better, through the Mets addition of K-Rod and the Braves picking up Derek Lowe. That being said, there is still no reason the Phillies should finish anywhere but in first place. The Mets gained nobody that can instill any heart into a ballclub that has collapsed in September the past two years and Atlanta's lineup couldn't be picked out by the players' own mothers. From the lead-off man, down to the last guy off the bench, Philly's offense remains unmatched in the National League East. Pitching is a bit more comparable from team to team, but the Phillies are in a position to where they can outscore their opponents when they need to, taking some of the pressure off the starters and allowing them to go after the hitters as they see fit. So if there are any doubters/haters out there that Philadelphia will be position to grab the pennant again come to grips with it now ‘cause it's gonna happen.

Oh yeah, to all those A-Rod fans. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!