Ryan Howard Will Win the 2009 NL MVP...Book It!

The 2009 Philadelphia Phillies have had some questions going into the season. Not so much in the form of who will be on the roster, or the moves they’ve made, but regarding the guys they have, their stars in fact. Will Jimmy Rollins have a resurgence year after an average 2008? Is Chase Utley fully recovered from his hip injury? But neither of those questions is as big as Ryan Howard and how the best power hitter in the game today will do after a big contract, after the World Series?

Not that his skills will really be called into question, because we all know what he can do (hit home runs) and can’t do (field worth a lick), but his desire to lead this team back into the playoffs to defend their title, the first time any Philadelphia player has had to since 1984. Well, to start the answer off we’ll look at the Phillies Spring Training. Howard came into camp in the best shape ever and it showed on the diamond, knocking in 10 home runs in the month of March. And, in my simpleton opinion, this should be only a prelude for what people can expect in April. Even though he has struggled during the early months in previous years he is ready to put together the most complete season of his still young major league career.

A 0 for 4 with 2Ks performance in the first game of the year is not a great start but it’s too early to assume the worst. That being said, his performances that last few years have indicated that his offensive prowess is unmatched save one, Albert Pujols. I think that the Pujols MVP last year bothered Ryan. That he forced his will upon his opponents in order to take the Phillies to the top of the NL East, and not winning was a quiet but personal disappointment.

After his first MVP award in 2006, Howard was battling contract issues every offseason and these were distractions that took away from his conditioning. He became less disciplined at the plate and his production actually dropped in 2007 and 2008, in comparison to his MVP year anyway. Yet despite this, he was still among the most valuable players in the league, finishing 5th in voting in 2007 when the award went to Jimmy Rollins, and 2nd to Albert Pujols in 2008. And last year, it was most likely his .251 average that tipped the scales to the Cardinal.

Pujols remains is main competition but you may also consider Manny and Hanley Ramirez to be in the mix as well. This does not include Ryan’s teammates, who have collected their own share of MVP votes. But, barring injury, it will be Howard who prevails in ’09 as he and Albert go at each other in the statistics. Back in mid-Feb I predicted that he was going to hit a mere .252/48/144, and I’ll stick with the power numbers, but expect a thirty to forty point jump in the batting average as he sends the ball into the stratosphere nearly fifty times this season. Think I’m wrong…..I don’t think so. Ryan Howard will be the 2009 NL MVP….you can book it.

Breaking Down the NL East: Shortstops

After going through the third basemen, I didn’t realize that the shortstop position would provide an even tighter race for the top spot in the ranks. But lo and behold, with Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, and Hanley Ramirez in the same division, who could expect anything less? More dynamic that the Utley/Uggla combination or the pair of Wright & Jones, these three guys play such a catalytic role in their team’s success that to remove one from the lineup could hinder the possibility of a victory. So who came in first?

First (Score 1.875): Oh no! Of all the things that could happen, Jose Reyes wins a tie break with Hanley Ramirez. But it’s a good tie break dealing with the fact that Reyes has hit much better in the clutch over the past three years. Everything else is a near wash. Jose, in my opinion one of the most over rated player has hit .312 and slugged .598 for the Mets. I haven’t looked to see what his stats were in September during the great chokes of the 21st century, but ability to get on base and then steal them puts him in first. Yuck! In any case I expect him to hit around his three year averages at .294/15/66 as New York once again misses the playoffs.

Second (1.875): Forida’s Hanley Ramirez is considered by many, including myself, to be the best shortstop in the National League and with good reason. He has averaged 26 home runs over the past three years to go along with a .308 batting average and an ever increasing on base percentage. On a real team with some real stars batting behind him and you might find him putting up some really unreal numbers. Unfortunately for Hanley, he’ll have to get traded for that to happen. I see him hitting .306 with 33 home runs and 70 RBI for a pedestrian Marlins team in 2009.

Third (2.25): Jimmy Rollins of the Phillies had an unmatched 2007, but seemed to see his offensive prowess fall back in 2008. What he may do is anyone’s guess but as long as he remains healthy, he should hit more than 20 dingers and drive in 70 runs. I have him projected at .280/14/65 and that should be fine as long as the team wins. He has to get his OBP up and keep his mouth shut and he will continue to be a fan favorite in Philadelphia.

Fourth (4.25): There’s this guy, Yunel Escobar down in Atlanta who I’d swear I’ve never heard of in my entire life, despite the fact that he hit .288 with 10 round-trippers and 60 RBIs last year. Now that I have heard of him, he doesn’t seem half bad. He doesn’t seem half good either, but on a Braves team consisting of half good and not half bad players, he’ll fit right in. I initially had him projected as a relative poor hitter particularly since he didn’t play in 2006, but I expect him to hit .307 have 12 home runs and 65 RBI in 2009. Not so shabby for a guy named Yunel.

Fifth (4.75): The National’s Christian Guzman, a 2008 All-Star, is a good hitting shortstop with no power. He reminds me of the prototypical guy from the 1980, something out of the Ozzie Smith mold, just lacking crazy defensive skills. Whether he can maintain himself a good enough player to make the All-Star team again, even as the National’s lone representative, only means that the team is falling deeper and deeper into the shadowy cellar in the NL East. His 2009 projections of .312/6/39 will certainly not wow anyone, but then again does anyone on that team?