Have the Phillies Started Their Engines Yet?

After a few questionable weeks of the 2009 baseball season, it looks as though the Phillies are finally getting down to business after a weekend sweep of the division leading Florida Marlins. The last game, the team exploded for 13 runs as the get their record over the .500 mark and within a game and a half of the top. The main point here being if they can maintain a little bit of this momentum and finish the month with more wins than losses.

In the beginning, it looked as if Raul Ibanez was going to have 170 RBI, but he has cooled. At the same time other guys like Chase Utley and Shane Victorino have picked it up and helping them win these much needed early games. Ryan Howard, who has been relatively quiet with only three home runs to date, has at least kept his average respectable at .290. Luckily for the Phils, as the weather gets hotter, so typically does Howard.

The starting pitching on the other hand is surely not indicative of a team even close to even in the standing department. Of all the starters, Brett Myers has the lowest ERA, and that is 4.91. Jamie Moyer just picked up his third win, so maybe he is getting back to his 46 year old form. Cole Hamels, well, we’ll have to see whether that shot he took to his arm last week will actually affect his game. He said he wouldn’t miss a start, so I can at least be hopeful.

The Phillies are not supposed to count on the Mets collapsing and the Marlins and Braves withering away at the end of the year. They cannot rely on winning eighty percent of their games the last two weeks of the season. They must take control now, while they can, and get into first place. From that point they can work on staying there and building a lead that they won’t have to worry about surrendering once the last month of the season rolls around. But in order to do this they must start their engines and keep them in high gear for as long as possible and barring multiple injuries, they should be able to simply maintain.

Right as of this moment, they are 9-8, which can easily turn into 9-11 if they are not conscious of the fact that last year was the first winning April that the franchise has had in years. And what happened last year? That’s right, a championship. If they come out ahead this month, then staying ahead should be easier when they guys that start slow start coming out of their slow starts. Hopefully, the pitching will bring itself together so that the offense doesn’t need to score thirteen runs a game although it would be nice.

Horrid Pitching by the Phils

Monday night’s Phillies game was called due to rain, and that might have been a good thing. The pitching has been horrid, inconsistent, and resembling nothing like the staff that took the mound last year, despite coming into the year looking like the strength of the team. Instead, from Cole Hamels to Brad Lidge, Phil’s fans have watched this team put up good offensive numbers, only to hover just shy of .500 ball. And despite his claim to the blame, it all can’t fall on ole Cole.

Hidden by this dark shadow of underperforming hurlers are a couple of bright spots that have undoubtedly helped this team avoid pure freefall. Raul Ibanez has put up a couple weeks of play by batting .386, leading the team in dingers and driving in 12 runs. More that what could have been expected from Pat the Bat, he has taken his spot in the lineup and just about eliminated the whole too many left handed bats cries. He still may not be worth the money he’s getting, especially when compared to Burrell’s deal with the Rays, but come season’s end, his consistency and overall ability to hurt the baseball, early naysayers might be speaking in a different tongue.

Should he keep it up for the next week and a half, Ryan Howard is having his best April since his MVP year in ’06. Gone could be the days where Ryan hits below his weight, as he came into the season in great shape. Whatever he did in the offseason certainly seems to have worked, and although he hasn’t put up crazy power numbers, he is holding his own batting .341. And when his power does switch on, and it will, watch out. I would even be willing to say that if he hits six home runs in April, he’ll hit fifty for the year, easily. In the meantime, he needs to simply maintain.

A third bright spot in the young Phillies season is the apparent return to health for Chase Utley. Many, including me, were unsure just how he would do following the hip injury, but obviously he’s fine. Batting .366 and what looks like to be well on his way to another All-Star caliber season. Chase is possibly the most important member of the team as he has the ability to carry a team when he is healthy. Where Jimmy Rollins is who provides the energy, or fuel to make this team go, Utley is the guy who keeps the team on track.

My hope is that the pitching comes together, that Brad Lidge doesn’t implode, Jamie Moyer turns fifty overnight, and that Cole isn’t a heartbeat away from arm trouble. It is the pitching that must pull through, because no matter how many runs Raul, Chase, and Ryan drive in, it won’t be enough to keep up with the runs given up. Right now, it’s early, a month from now there will still be time. Two months though, it may be getting to the brink when if the pitching hasn’t turned itself around, the chances of repeating would have shrunken as if they were in fifty degree seawater.

Ryan Howard Will Win the 2009 NL MVP...Book It!

The 2009 Philadelphia Phillies have had some questions going into the season. Not so much in the form of who will be on the roster, or the moves they’ve made, but regarding the guys they have, their stars in fact. Will Jimmy Rollins have a resurgence year after an average 2008? Is Chase Utley fully recovered from his hip injury? But neither of those questions is as big as Ryan Howard and how the best power hitter in the game today will do after a big contract, after the World Series?

Not that his skills will really be called into question, because we all know what he can do (hit home runs) and can’t do (field worth a lick), but his desire to lead this team back into the playoffs to defend their title, the first time any Philadelphia player has had to since 1984. Well, to start the answer off we’ll look at the Phillies Spring Training. Howard came into camp in the best shape ever and it showed on the diamond, knocking in 10 home runs in the month of March. And, in my simpleton opinion, this should be only a prelude for what people can expect in April. Even though he has struggled during the early months in previous years he is ready to put together the most complete season of his still young major league career.

A 0 for 4 with 2Ks performance in the first game of the year is not a great start but it’s too early to assume the worst. That being said, his performances that last few years have indicated that his offensive prowess is unmatched save one, Albert Pujols. I think that the Pujols MVP last year bothered Ryan. That he forced his will upon his opponents in order to take the Phillies to the top of the NL East, and not winning was a quiet but personal disappointment.

After his first MVP award in 2006, Howard was battling contract issues every offseason and these were distractions that took away from his conditioning. He became less disciplined at the plate and his production actually dropped in 2007 and 2008, in comparison to his MVP year anyway. Yet despite this, he was still among the most valuable players in the league, finishing 5th in voting in 2007 when the award went to Jimmy Rollins, and 2nd to Albert Pujols in 2008. And last year, it was most likely his .251 average that tipped the scales to the Cardinal.

Pujols remains is main competition but you may also consider Manny and Hanley Ramirez to be in the mix as well. This does not include Ryan’s teammates, who have collected their own share of MVP votes. But, barring injury, it will be Howard who prevails in ’09 as he and Albert go at each other in the statistics. Back in mid-Feb I predicted that he was going to hit a mere .252/48/144, and I’ll stick with the power numbers, but expect a thirty to forty point jump in the batting average as he sends the ball into the stratosphere nearly fifty times this season. Think I’m wrong…..I don’t think so. Ryan Howard will be the 2009 NL MVP….you can book it.

Breaking Down the NL East: Starting Pitching

Back in the 1980’s the NL East had some dominating pitching that mowed down opposing hitters. Steve Carlton began the decade for the Phils as one of the most intimidating southpaws in history and led into the phenomenon known as Doc Gooden. Gooden carried the Mets staff to a 1986 World Series Championship but was doomed due to his personal issues. The early 90’s saw the blossoming of the likes of Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, and Pedro Martinez to name a few. Today, Johann Santana and Cole Hamels lead the pack with young pitchers like the Marlins’ Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson look to come into their own. On the opposite ends of the spectrum are Jamie Moyer and the now older Tom Glavine, both in the twilight of their careers, yet somehow remaining effective enough to remain in the league. I evaluated the starters on various categories, putting the heaviest weight on wins, ERA, and WHIP creating a “productivity” number. Here are my rankings for the National League East’s Starting Staffs.

First (Score 2.57): The New York Mets would probably be lost without their ace, Johan Santana (pictured) as the rest of the staff is made up of a prospect coming of age (Mike Pelfrey), an inconsistent pitcher who can be really good or really bad (Oliver Perez), a once promising starter who was hindered by injuries (John Maine), and a journeyman now in his 13th year and 7th team (Livian Hernandez). Santana ranked the highest of all of the starting pitchers in the division. He brings up the team’s average in nearly every category leading the pack with a productivity number of 5.5. If his team will hit behind him, he may be odds on favorite to win the NL Cy Young award.

Second (2.25): The Phillies of 2008 were extremely fortunate that their pitching remained in tact last year. Brett Myers was sent down to the minors midseason and returned a solid No. 2 behind Cole Hamels (pictured), who for some strange reason received no run support from the league’s most offensive team. The ageless wonder of Jamie Moyer pulled together 16 wins and Joe Blanton came to the Phils via Oakland and went 4-0 before having the postseason of his life. Kyle Kendrick will not be on the starting staff this year and is replaced by Chan Ho Park for found his competitive edge after being banished to the bullpen for the past several years. JA Happ, who will/should start the year in the pen may be counted on to start as well. Hamels finished second in the division with a score of 4.19 and Moyer slipped into the fifth spot in the NL East at 3.25.

Third (2.14): This is not the same Atlanta Braves pitching staff that won so many division titles, so many games, and now is left to fill spots with quality arms with guys who have names like Jurrjens and Kawakami. Derek Lowe (pictured) anchors this group and will have to win twenty games if the Braves are to be on the winning side of .500. Javier Vazquez has hoodwinked another team into thinking he can help them win, despite a career 127-129 record. Jurrjens had a decent year as a rookie. Now that teams have a book on him, we’ll see how well he does in 2009. Kawakami is a Japanese import and my guess is that he’ll be somewhere between Dice-K and Hideki Irabu. The all familiar name of Tom Glavine rounds out the rotation and as long as he can be effective, they’ll keep the 42 year old on the team. His season last year though (2-4, 5.54 ERA in 63 innings), wasn’t a good sign for things to come.

Fourth (1.56): There are no Josh Becketts, A.J. Burnetts, or Brad Pennys on this Florida Marlins team, Dontrelle Willis is even gone. Some might ask who’s left to pitch. Well, that’s a good question. Ricky Nolasco (pictured) is a big league pitcher for sure as he went 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA last year and is young enough to expect improvement. After Ricky, there’s Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, Anibal Sanchez, and Andrew Miller. All young, all unproven. Given that the NL East is chock full of experienced hitters I’m unsure just how they’ll do. Marlins prospects seem to be unlimited in their ability to mature quicker than others, so maybe they’ll be ok. In reality, the offense will probably have to carry the load if Florida wants to finish even in fourth place in the division.

Fifth (1.06): The Washington Nationals’ pitching staff is hardly worth mentioning. That organization hasn’t had a decent pitcher since they were in Montreal. Now they’re going to throw John Lannan (pictured), Scott Olsen, Daniel Cabrera. They are decent, but I don’t know that they are anything other than fourth starters on much of the other staffs around the league. Then add Jordan (not Ryan) Zimmermann and Shairon (that’s a dude’s name) Martis and you are looking at a 100 loss season. Is baseball really back in the Nation’s capital? It is if you are counting the visiting team. I’m sorry D.C. fans for being harsh, but pitching is key in this game and the Nationals don’t have it.

All this of course is barring injuries which are key to the success or despair of any team. If Johan or Cole goes down, then the whole landscape changes. From top to bottom I think the Phillies have the best rotation and while the New York Mets don’t exactly have slouches, the staff will lead the Phils to their 3rd division title. Heaven forbid Mike Pelfrey be a bust for the Metropolitans, because if he is, or hits a sophomore snag, then everything will rest on Santana.

One more in the Breaking Down the NL East series….the bullpen.

Phillies Notes to Note

The Phillies recently released fourth outfielder Geoff Jenkins (below), making room for a move that will improve the club and their bench strength. They have two options, neither of them particularly bad. First, the Phillies have already been in contact with Gary Sheffield, showing interest in the former Tigers DH who is just shy of 500 home runs. The second would be Andruw Jones, still under contract with the Texas Rangers. While it is doubtful that either would get a full time playing gig with the Phils, they would provide a much needed right-handed bat off the bench to go with lefties Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, and Chris Coste. The Phillies will eat the eight million dollars still left on the Jenkins' contract.

Gary Sheffield has fallen upon hard times. Since leaving the Yankees the forty year old Sheffield had shown a steady decrease in his ability at the plate. Add to the fact that he no longer can play anything but DH or First Base, and he doesn’t provide that much to a Phillies team looking to repeat. On the other hand, from what I understand, the Phillies would only have to pay him $400,000 which is a bargain for a veteran bat.

The Phils are also looking into a trade for Andruw Jones, who despite ripping off the Dodgers for $14+ million; can still play the field. They would probably only have to give up a low level prospect for him or a journeyman in the system that wouldn’t make the big league club regardless. The Phils have a history with the Rangers too. They traded Vincente Padilla to the Rangers a few years back and recently received John Mayberry Jr. in a deal for Greg Golson. He would be a better fit for the Phillies since he still owns a glove and should still no how to use it. The big question surrounding Jones is whether or not he can regain his form from the earlier part of this decade, for from two years ago for that matter, or whether the overweight, lackadaisical shell of a former All-Star is all that is left.

The Phillies named their fifth starter, and his name is Chan Ho Park. Park had an outstanding spring and took full advantage of the opportunity to crack the rotation after spending the last few seasons coming out of the bullpen. He beat out expected starter JA Happ, who may either join the pen as long relief, or temporarily be sent to AAA. Happ will regardless be spending plenty of time on the big league roster. This solidifies the starting staff as Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Moyer, and now Park.

As the Phillies roster rounds itself out there are few surprises, with possibly the exception being Jenkins’ release. But despite that, the pitching staff looks in better shape than it did a year ago and the addition of Jack Taschner will help fill the void during the J.C. Romero suspension. Should Philly pick up either Sheffield or Jones, it will be interesting to see who the odd man out will be, although Stairs is the most likely candidate.

Breaking Down the NL East: Rightfielders

In my humble and uninformed simpleton opinion, this year’s crop of NL East right fielders is the weakest of any and all positions with the possible exception of Catcher. On that note, there is an inkling of a potential star in Jeff Francoeur, but everyone else is slightly above if not average. Long gone are the days of Daryl Strawberry, Dave Justice and….and….Von Hayes? Boy that list went downhill fast. Boy, Bobby Abreu being one of the divisions best rightfielders of the past thirty years doesn’t say very much for the position. In any case, here is this year’s bunch of guys…in order of rank.

First (Score 1.875): Don’t let the score fool you. The Philadelphia Phillies' Jayson Werth is a good player, but he probably isn’t the best in this group. A serviceable fielder who became the starter following the departure of Bobby Abreu was a solid hitter with some pop in his bat. He hit career highs in dingers and RBIs, mainly due to the increase in playing time. I think he has consistency issues, but when he’s on, he’ll provide good protection to any of the lefties he hits behind. This year I project him to hit .285/21/73 as he’ll bat fifth or sixth depending on the opposing pitcher.

Second (2.5): The New York Mets’ Ryan Church has been in the league now for a couple of years and would be a good fourth outfielder for a contending team. Unfortunately for him and the Mets, he is the starting right fielder really due to a lack of options. As with leftfielder Daniel Murphy, his job this year is not secure by any means, and if either of these two should perform poorly early, then they just might get replaced. He has decent production when he plays, but playing will depend on his health and how he fares in April and May. I actually expect the Mets to make a trade for an outfielder sooner than later and Ryan might be the odd man out. It will be .275/15/53 for Ryan Church in 2009.

Third (2.875): Jeff Francoeur of the Atlanta Braves had a down year in 2008 and after two straight 100 RBI years in ’06 and ’07 finished with a mere 71 last season. Maybe it was the Andruw Jones factor and the added stress affected his game. Last year I would easily have put him first, and almost did this year, but I have a nagging feeling that ’08 was the real Francoeur. I’m not sure how much better he’s going to be since the lineup outside of Chipper and Brian McCann is mediocre. But for the time being I see him hitting .264 with 13 home runs and driving in 76 runs.

Fourth (3.5): When I first heard about Jeremy Hermida I though he was going to be the next star coming out of the Florida Marlins farm system, best thing since sliced bread. And he had a promising year in 2007. 2008 however was far from his coming out party. He had the same power numbers, but he couldn’t hit the .250 mark by season’s end. That’s o.k. if you are Ryan Howard hitting 45 round trippers, but if you are anyone else, you are a notch below average. This year he’ll need to do more since the Fish dropped more power off the pier and I think he will. He reach 18 home runs, 72 RBIs, and bat around .270 in 2009 for a Marlins team that will battle for the 3rd spot in the East.

Fifth (4.25): In his two part-time years in the majors, it is unclear just how good the Washington Nationals’ Elijah Dukes really is. The thing that has been holding him back in the past was his attitude and who knows if he can really exorcise whatever demons he has so that he can realize his full potential. But the “high risk” term is doubtful to leave him as he enters his second season in the nation’s capital. He does show some power and the ability to drive in runs, as long as he keeps his strikeouts down. Barring any injuries, I expect him do keep Austin Kearns out of a starting job; .257/18/62 for Elijah in 2009.

I might have done Jeff Francoeur some injustice here, but I don’t mind being wrong at any point. None of these guys have shown superstar potential and may wind up being nothing more than role players on their respective teams. I wouldn’t be surprised however if one or two of these guys aren’t replaced by midseason and I may have to revisit these projections then. This ends the projections for the position players. Next time I break down the NL East I will look at the starting pitching, then the relief crew to wrap up the series.

Breaking Down the NL East: Centerfield

The NL East Centerfielders are a varied bunch. There is a power hitting, run producing machine, a Flyin’ Hawaiian, and former prospect coming into his own, and two youngsters cracking a major league lineup. In this group, only really two stand out, with the potential for a third growing with each season. All five of these guys, however, will have something to prove this year. Here they are.

First (Score = 1.375): The New York Mets' Carlos Beltran has not provided the dividends that the team and its fans were hoping for. The idea of bringing him in, winning a bidding war and paying him a ton of money, was to get them over the hump and consistently into the playoffs. Well, that hasn’t happened once. It isn’t necessarily Beltran’s fault. He’s driven in over 110 runs each of the last three years, so he’s doing most of what he can. I say most because it doesn’t appear he has that intangible that turns a good player into a great player, a competitor into a winner. He is in essence a younger version of Bobby Abreu. This upcoming season it will be more of the same for Carlos. He’ll see .279/37/114 for a second place team.

Second (2.25): Before last season there were question surrounding the Philadelphia Phillies as to whether or not Shane Victorino could be an everyday outfielder but by the time September rolled around, there was no doubt that he was the best centerfielder the team had had since Lenny Dykstra. His series in the playoffs against Milwaukee was amazing, supplying the sparkplug that made the Phillies engine go. Last year on the whole he mixed some power with good speed and although he won’t be called upon to hit a grand slam, he will hit .284/10/47 in the second spot in the Phillies lineup in 2009.

Third (2.25): The National’s Lastings Milledge loses out to Victorino in a tie break mainly because of the impact each has made on their team and at this point in his career, Milledge has shown he can hit major league pitching but not be an integral part of a winning team. Milledge has a very nice junior year in the show hitting .261/14/61 and getting some full-time experience. Can he do it again? There is no reason to think otherwise. As long as he stays healthy, this year will tell whether he is doomed to mediocrity on bad teams or whether he is a star in the making….on a bad team. He will reach .255/16/59 this year as he comes of age as an average ballplayer.

Fourth & Fifth (4.375 & 4.625): The juries are still out on Atlanta Braves’ Josh Anderson and the Florida Marlins’ Cameron Maybin. They have played a combined total of 93 games in the majors and project so close to each other, I might as well surgically connect them at the hip. Both likely to hit just above the pitcher in the lineup, Maybin has the better shot at helping his team. With the Marlins pitching and the organizations propensity to field good young players (Uggla, Cabrera, Willingham, Beckett, & Willis just to name a few) Cameron will show why the Fish wanted him in that blockbuster trade that sent two Marlin stars to Detroit. This is not to say that the younger Anderson in the Brave outfield won’t have a chance to shine; I just expect Maybin to shine brighter a bit faster. Same projection for both, despite my obvious bias toward Maybin: .283/7/43.

I realize that in my opening paragraph I put Victorino in the same category as Carlos Beltran and that might have been getting ahead of myself. Beltran is a better all-round hitter, hands down, but what he brings to the Mets and what Victorino brings to the Phils cannot be compared, in my opinion. The two slot of the Phillies’ lineup is his and he is just about the perfect guy to hit behind Jimmy Rollins. He can be kind of a slacker at times, but the energy he brings to the everyday batting order is why he is more important to Philly than Carlos to NYC.

The World Baseball Classic Is Finally Over

Now that the World Baseball Classic has ended in dramatic fashion, fans of Major League Baseball can finally get their players back and get back to some form of normality. This Phillies had rented out a couple of players to the international set of teams, and some of these guys were pretty important to their big league club. Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Carlos Ruiz, J.C. Romero, Matt Stairs, not to mention about a half dozen or so minor leaguers were playing for their respective countries.

I am not going to get into whether or not I think they should play for their country. But I will discuss what the MLB team should do to protect themselves from a disaster should one of the league’s stars blow out a knee or an elbow. In future contracts, place a proviso where the team is not on the hook for the player’s salary for injuries incurred during exhibition play. This will include the World Baseball Classic, and if the Olympic Committee puts baseball back on the list of games, that too. This will of course, force the players to carefully consider their participation.

Now luckily, no one was seriously injured and those who felt tweaks or strains, pulled out when they could. It would be difficult to imagine the uproar if J.Roll would have pulled up lame. How could the Phillies be compensated for losing their star shortstop? They couldn’t. Instead they would have to deal with it when every other team in their division is at full strength.

Injuries can happen at any time and that has been an area of concern for the other professional sports too, so it is time for baseball to follow their leads and give the ability to the teams to disallow players from participation. Otherwise clubs could be looking at a situation where some guy from the Netherlands or China ruins a teams chance from winning a championship.

Goodbye To My Favorite Knucklehead

Even though his legend will lie within a bloody sock, I will always remember Curt Schilling as a guy who drove Phillies fans nuts. He was traded to the Phillies on April 2, 1992 by the Houston Astros for a future journeyman in Jason Grimsley. He almost instantly became ace of the staff going 14-11 in his first year in Philadelphia. He then led the crusade with guys like Dykstra, Daulton, and Kruk to reach the World Series in 1993, where he proceeded to go 1-1 after winning the NLCS MVP. The Series went to the Blue Jays that year but the future looked bright for "Schill."

He was a man that everyone wanted on the mound but no one wanted in the clubhouse, mainly due to his big mouth. He was a bit overbearing at times and even though he drove then Phillies manager Terry Francona up the wall, he was one of the best pitchers to wear the uniform. His 101 wins as a Phil ranks sixth in franchise history, but he also places in strikeouts (4th), games started (6th), and holds the team's single season record with his 319 strikeouts in 1997.

These few words here can't describe how he tried to carry a bad Phillies team year after year following that 1993 run, nor can it truly show how missed he was when he was traded to Arizona. But no matter how many red cell/ketchup soaked socks he may have placed upon his feet, no matter how many championships he won elsewhere, he will always be a greater Phillie then he will be a loud mouthed, crazy headed, yet golden armed lunatic member of the Diamondbacks and Red Sox

Breaking Down the NL East: Left Fielders

It’s been difficult to find time to complete my Breaking Down the NL East series, but I have managed to get to the left fielders, of which we have a couple of old guys, a couple of young upstarts, and a man who appears to be stuck, going nowhere in mediocrity. Garrett Anderson and Raul Ibanez move in from the AL West to try their hand at NL pitching, Josh Willingham has been unable to find his way off horrible teams, and Daniel Murphy and Cody Ross look to solidify themselves in everyday roles as each of their teams try to topple the Phillies. So, here is my ranking and projections of the NL East Left Fielders.

First (Score 1.625): Raul Ibanez has played on a team with some potential however the Seattle Mariners are struggling to find an identity outside of Ichiro. Now, with the Philadelphia Phillies, Raul has the opportunity to hit behind one of the most prolific power hitters in years and despite his age and contract, should be an upgrade over the departed Pat Burrell. Ibanez is unlikely to drive in as many runs as he had in Seattle, mainly because of the guys in front of him, but he should still protect Howard in the batting order. Again, aside from his age, the only other issue facing Ibanez, but really the Phillies in general; are the number of left handed bats that will be populating the everyday lineup. I see Raul hitting .290 and 27 home runs in Citizen’s Bank Park and driving 104 adding only more offense to the most offensive team in the league.

Second (2.625): This may be a bit of a surprise, but Cody Ross of the Florida Marlins has quietly become a solid major league hitter driving in 22 dingers and 73 RBIs in 2008. This year he should be a full time player and the only thing that will hold him back will be the other guys in the Marlins lineup. He has also been the most clutch performer in his short career, slugging over .600 with runners in scoring position. I don’t expect a drop off for Ross, but as he becomes the focus of opposing pitchers, he may have a hard time getting a pitch to hit. Cody is going to go for .284/33/86 in 2009 for an anemic offense.

Third (3.25): The Washington National’s Josh Willingham was a guy I had high hopes for a couple of years ago, but with an injury and really lackluster play, I’m afraid he has become simply an adequate player who is not going to wow anybody at this point. A platoon player on most teams, for the Nationals he will be a starting player. He comes in third here not for what he will potentially do as much as what he has done the past couple of years. Taking into consideration that he was hurt, he will see better offensive numbers, but I don’t project him having a blockbuster year like I would have back in 2006. The National left fielder will reach .271/24/80 and he will be happy he did.

Fourth (3.5): The new Atlanta Brave, Garrett Anderson was one of the Angel’s most consistent hitters in the last decade and was instrumental in getting the Halos their first World Series Championship. He is now, clearly, on his way out of the game as I think he was just looking for a place he can play everyday. His 3 year average of 16 home runs and 85 RBIs won’t blow anyone away in the NL East, but it should keep him in the top half of the batting order. That being said, he is not going to bring the glory back to Atlanta and he should probably be no more than a stopgap for a year or two until the Braves can find a younger replacement. He is projected right at his averages .283/16/83 because there is no reason to think otherwise.

Fifth (4.0): Daniel Murphy of the New York Mets could be the next Dale Murphy or the next Murphy Brown. It is just too soon to tell. But based on the short amount of time he got last year, he should be no less than a platoon player for the Metropolitans in 2009. He was decent in the clutch with anything less than two outs, but again, I emphasize that that could all change as he gains the major league experience. This year, I do expect him to struggle a little bit, especially if he starts off hot and opposing teams start gathering data on Murphy. Should that happen it will be interesting to see just what kind of hitter he can turn himself into. This season I don’t expect him to hit like Dale, but certainly better than a fictional television news anchor. Right now I will lowball him with .250/5/45, but that could get better with playing time.
This is not necessarily a weak group of left fielders, but it is not one that will be fighting for MVP votes to be sure. I am looking forward to seeing how well Murphy does in New York, although I would rather see him flounder than do well against the Phillies. Additionally interesting will be how well Ibanez fits into the Philadelphia lineup and if Cody Ross can continually build on his last three seasons to become the next Marlins player to get traded to a contender.

Breaking Down the NL East: Third Basemen

The NL East has arguably the best set of their basemen in the League, including its AL counterpart. It consists of two solid All-Star caliber players, a defensive whiz, one up and coming guy, and a no-namer. One is a borderline hall-of-famer. Another, should he keep on keepin’ on, has the potential to be enshrined as well. But this blog post isn’t about who may or may not be hall of fame material, no, this is about the NL East third basemen and where they rank in the division. So here goes.

First (Score 1.75): A winner of a tie break because of his overall performance at the position, New York’s David Wright is possibly the most offensive third baseman since, well, the guys that’s number two on this list. Averaging nearly 30 home runs and 116 RBI, he is a machine at the plate who makes an overrated Jose Reyes valuable as a run scorer. A really good hitter overall, he maintains a .300 average and a decent OBP. He has also been a done well in the clutch hitting .306 and slugging .510 with runners in scoring position. This year I project him to do much of the same, .306/33/122, as he continues to carve out an outstanding career.

Second (1.75): Chipper Jones, whether a left fielder or a third baseman, has to carry a team even despite any contributions from Brian McCann. Hopefully for Atlanta and Chipper, the Braves’ pitching will surprise the world and become the reincarnates of the early 90’s teams. Unlikely as it is, the Braves’ best shot at winning the division will Chipper and his ability to pound the baseball. If he manages to flirt with .400 late into the season, and stay healthy, the rest of the lineup will have plenty of opportunities to not be a detriment. While I don’t expect Chipper to hit .380, .350 is not out of the realm of possibility. I also expect him to maintain a nice output power, hitting around 23 dingers and driving in at least 80 RBI. It all depends on the rest of that lineup.

Third (2.875): Philadelphia Phillie, Pedro Feliz has had a steadily decreasing offensive output the last three years. That being said, he is probably the best defensive third baseman on the list and why his job is extremely secure in Philly as long as he can come back from his back problem. It’s almost a shame that his back can’t be blamed for an abhorrent on base percentage (.291 over the past three years). But despite that, onlookers need to understand that Pedro doesn’t need to be money at the plate. He’ll be batting seventh behind guys that will take care of all of the offense, as long as he covers the hot corner.

Fourth (3.625): A couple of years ago, I would have thought that the Nationals' Ryan Zimmerman would be pushing David Wright for the top spot on this list, but after a completely lackluster 2008 he will have to come out like gangbusters and totally annihilate opposing pitchers. Still considered by many to be a rising star in the league, he needs to prove that he can do it with RISP, particularly with two outs as he hasn’t hit better than .217 over the last two years. If he can come back to form, barring any lingering affects from a 2008 injury, I’m proposing that he will hit .280/16/75 this year, which may be low since he now has Adam Dunn behind him in the lineup.

Fifth (5.95): I would say that Don McPherson is going to be a horrible third baseman starting for a horrible Florida Marlins team, but that would be horribly premature and shortsighted. For years this team had young players come through for them and this guy might just be ready to break out. Who knows? He’s played a total of 128 games in his career and what better place to play and get experience than in front of 37 fans? Much like Andersen Hernandez, the second baseman of the Nationals, McPherson just doesn’t have the track record to warrant anything but fifth place on this list. I would be surprised if he hit anything more than the minimum to keep him in the show. He goes for .227/4/31 in my book.

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Breaking Down the NL East: First Baseman

With the start of Spring Training, the gears that will become the 2009 baseball season begin to grind away. Before to long, Opening Day will be upon us and our dreams as fans will either start to take shape or become a nightmare, eroding our faith in our team and all that is good in our lives. So as a public service, I will address each position in the National League Eastern Division, one at a time in order to provide a relatively informative, if slightly biased opinion, on who has the best opportunity to succeed. To accomplish this, I have graded each starting player on each team based on several key stats and have deduced 2009 projections for BA/HR/RBI that should be spot on, if not way off. The players are listed in order of rank. The statistics used to determine rank are batting average, home runs, RBI, and OBP, compared to the Clutch hitting data of the Average and Slugging with RISP and RISP/2outs. This data was then placed into an equation that I made up off the top of my head. These are the NL East First Basemen

First (1.5 score): Ryan Howard of the Phillies last year saw a good drop in his batting average and that was due for the most part, to a dismal first half despite hitting 28 home runs and knocking in 84 RBIs. Everyone like to focus on his strikeouts, however, strikeouts do not represent the lack of offensive production. Even though he only batted .251 and struck out 199 times, I would gladly take the 48/146 that he provided any day of the week. More importantly he hit .352/11/32 (BA/HR/RBI) in September/October, when you really need your star to step up. He led the 2008 Phillies team into the playoffs, as he should. Howard is projected to hit around what he did last year and his home run and RBI totals are not too far off from the average of his last 3 years. I expect him to see .252/48/144 in 2010, unfortunately for opposing pitchers, his clutch hitting is only going to get better.

Second (2.5): Carlos Delgado in New York had a better 2008 than 2007. That being said, as Carlos goes so does the Mets. He has not been with runners in scoring position until there are two outs. The difference being more than 100 points (.530 vs. .639). He is still a legitimate threat in that Mets lineup, and as long as he remains healthy and they guys in front of him can get on base, then he should be as productive as he was last year as the Mets will/should be happy to stay in second place behind Philadelphia. Look for Carlos’s to hit .269/36/110 this year, not bad numbers for a guy on the downside of his career. We’ll have to wait and see if his teammate will do their jobs, and perhaps, just perhaps, the Mets will force the Phils to look over their shoulder.

Third (3.0): Jorge Cantu has had a roller coaster career changing teams, changing positions. This year he looks to settle in as the Marlin’s first baseman with the trading of Mike Jacobs to Kansas City. Now with a place, both city and position, to call home, Cantu can focus on his game. Last year he hit .277/29/95 for a young team where at 27, Jorge will be one of the elder statesmen. This year should only be better. He has shown that with an adequate numbers of at bats and with his health in good shape, his numbers will start to solidify to show an above average player. .273/27/85 is where he’ll be at season’s end. That RBI total should be higher but with Hanley Ramirez being the only real established hitter ahead of him, he’ll have to take advantage of every RBI chance he can.

Fourth (3.0): Casey Kotchman loses the tie break with Cantu by way of power and slugging. He is a good young player to came to the Braves via the Los Angeles California Angels of Anaheim and has established himself as a good hitting first baseman. He’s not the kind of power hitter Howard and Delgado are, but he has hit 11 and 14 in the last two years respectively, so some pop is there. I see him more in the Mark Grace mold though where he has a decent batting average and he doesn’t hurt an overall lineup that includes Chipper Jones and Brian McCann. Whether any of these guys will drive in 100 runs in 2010 is a big question mark, while Kotchman should be good for around 80 RBI. His projection figures out to be .282/15/79 as the Braves will have troubles keeping pace with Philadelphia and New York, especially when it comes to producing runs.

Fifth (5.0): Nick Johnson is a tough guy to rate, mainly because he hasn’t played the last couple of years. Now, with the National’s addition of Adam Dunn, it’s unclear whether Johnson will have any significant time this year either. Assuming he does play first base, and the Nationals play Dunn in left field, Nick Johnson has a long way to go to get back to the .290/23/77 he hit way back in 2006. Dunn would probably be rated 3rd in the division, essentially due to his power, while his batting average would be what is holding him back from getting any higher than three. But enough on Adam Dunn, I have listed Nick Johnson because he is a first baseman first (and because I did the math before the Dunn signing) and his projections are horrible .121/3/11 but may be more accurate since he may not see the field once again.

The analysis: I would happily post the excel spreadsheet I used to come up with my rankings/projections but it just wouldn’t come out right so I will try my best to explain it in such a way that is coherent and understandable by the general public. First, I weighted the last three years and used multiplying factors of .6 (for 2008), .25, and .15 for a total of 1.00. I then added up the sums of each stat (BA, HR, RBI, Avg-RISP, Slg-RISP, Avg-RISP 2 outs, and Slg-RISP 2 outs) and then divided by each players three year average in that statistic. I then took that number and multiplied it again against the sum and whammo, I got the projections for this year based on the last three. In most cases, it’s not to far off of the 3 year average but it does reflect an increase in some areas for some players. Okay, from there I ranked them one thru five and took the average of the regular stats (BA, HR, and RBI) versus the clutch stats and got the overall score. I wish there was a way to post it but that is the way it goes. We’ll see how it works out at the other positions and particularly with the pitchers, and hopefully, I’ll get it all done by Opening Day.

The Philadelphia Phillies Are Brilliant

It would appear that the chastity belts have been removed from the purse strings of the Phillies ownership. For years the mentality of being a second-rate team in a small market has weighed down the thinking that paying for players with a higher quality of potential and talent can lead to a championship. And what do you know? This past off season has been one of the most productive the Phillies have ever had. They resigned every player that was arbitration eligible. The one big piece of the World Series team who was eligible for free agency, Pat Burrell, was allow to leave but was replaced by a player who could be just as effective as a hitter, and probably a bit better in the field. Otherwise, the likes of Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, and ace Cole Hamels will help lead the Phils back to the post season.

Now in recent events, the Phillies have made their most brilliant move to date. They have locked up Ryan Howard, perhaps the most prolific power hitter (Albert Pujols noted) in the past decade. What he has done in his short career is unparalleled by any Phillie. Signing Howard to a three year, 54 million dollar contract was the best thing they could do for both sides. I have previously written about what has gone on between the two parties and while I am not shocked that they got a deal done, I am a bit surprised that it seems that Ryan shortchanged himself on the back end of the deal. The contract calls for 15 million dollars this year, 19 next year, and 20 the third year, which by then could be a real bargain if he continues the way he has. It also forgoes the next few years of arbitration which only created an environment of contention and allows Ryan to focus on getting prepared for the upcoming season. A happy Howard is a vital piece to repeating last year's performance, especially with the prospect of Chase Utley missing the beginning of the season

Now it seems that the team is in place for a run at defending its championship. With the only real questions being the fifth starter and J.C. Romero's temporary replacement, Ruben Amaro Jr. and Charlie Manuel should not only be set up this year, but perhaps the next three, just as long as they are able to find the pitching they need. They have Joe Blanton and Jamie Moyer for one more year. After that they'll need to replace one or both. It could be through the promotion of JA Happ or Carlos Carrasco, both of whom are vying for the 5th starter spot this year, and we shall see how they work out in spring training. The Phils also have some trade bait to dangle if need be. Jason Donald performed well on the Olympic squad as well as the Arizona Fall League and could even make the big league roster if Utley isn't ready for opening day. But for the time being, instead of getting to far ahead of ourselves, let's focus on this year.

This year the Phillies division got a little better, through the Mets addition of K-Rod and the Braves picking up Derek Lowe. That being said, there is still no reason the Phillies should finish anywhere but in first place. The Mets gained nobody that can instill any heart into a ballclub that has collapsed in September the past two years and Atlanta's lineup couldn't be picked out by the players' own mothers. From the lead-off man, down to the last guy off the bench, Philly's offense remains unmatched in the National League East. Pitching is a bit more comparable from team to team, but the Phillies are in a position to where they can outscore their opponents when they need to, taking some of the pressure off the starters and allowing them to go after the hitters as they see fit. So if there are any doubters/haters out there that Philadelphia will be position to grab the pennant again come to grips with it now ‘cause it's gonna happen.

Oh yeah, to all those A-Rod fans. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!