A-Rod Is Becoming More Like Rodman Every Day

Can Alex Rodriguez become a bigger mess than he has already become? What happened to that pampered phenom that came up through the Mariner organization that made people forget about former Seattle legends like Al Davis, Mark Langston, and Harold Reynolds? I’ll tell you what happened. Dude was weird to begin with. He just hit a ton of home runs so that no one would notice. Now that he’s gone to New York, a little visit to Madonna has become the most normal thing he’s done in years.

There is the steroid issue, the strange photos that include him standing unusually close to himself in the mirror, and now a book has come out about how he really is and all of this stuff just this year. Never mind that A-Rod has distanced himself from his WBC Dominican teammates, or that he apparently can’t handle the Yankee/Red Sox pissing match, or that despite his talent, he has failed to help his team to a championship, A-Rod just can’t seem to be un-ridiculous anymore.

I haven’t read the book that’s recently come out about the slugger, nor do I plan to. I just think that this guy is becoming a mess and that his personal clutter is going to cover up the fact that he is a great ballplayer. Although the fact that there are allegations of him using what are now banned substances, the fact that he is a great ball player has even become tainted to some degree. It’s up to historians to decide whether or not whatever Rodriguez took really enhanced his play. I think it did a little, but I think the guy probably wouldn’t have profited from the stuff as some other last man on the bench type of player.

The worst part of it all is that he is still relatively young. Maybe he will grow out of his eccentricities, but then again maybe they’ll grow. But the guy had to be screwed up to get this ball rolling so perhaps with the use of some top notch state of the art therapy, he can move past the need to become baseball’s Dennis Rodman. That’s where he’s headed, only for a different reason. Dennis realized relatively late in his career that he didn’t have the cash required to retire for life, so he made himself into a spectacle in order to generate some interest in him. If you remember, while Rodman was in San Antonio, he began dying his hair. Then by the time he was playing with MJ he was in full wacko mode. He started slow, and built it up. Kind of like what A-rod has done. And where Alex now? Well, he’s loving his reflection, literally.

At this rate, it is only a matter of time before A-rod throws on a white wedding dress, or starts keeping a pet tiger cub in the locker room, or even better, legally changes his name to A-rod. It’s a real shame though, that his book is gonna make the author dirty rich by making A-rod look real dirty, but I guess that the way it is when you are more than just a pop icon, baseball player superstar who appears to be living a psychedelic and surreal life.

The Mets Are Losers: Plain and Simple

Going into tonights game with the Philadelphia Phillies, the New York Mets are 9-12 and 4.5 games behind the Florida Marlins. This must be a disappointment to Mets fans as the bullpen was viewed as the anchor that took the team down and out of contention last year. It appears that even with the addition of two solid relief pitchers in K-Rod and JJ Putz, that the problem wasn't relief pitching.

The Mets have stars on the team, that there is no doubt. David Wright is a great third baseman who can put up numbers that will rival the greats of the game. Delgado, Reyes, and Beltran are all bonifide hitters although Jose is over-rated and streaky at best. What these four cannot seem to do is get their team to win due to lack of heart.

Unlike their opponents this evening, these great yet gutless players in the Mets lineup are, for lack of a better word, losers. The Phillies' Jimmy Rollins willed his team to the playoffs in 2007, while Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are clear leaders for their club. And no matter what the Mets try to do to improve, whether its spending a ton of cash for a starting pitcher or using the manager as the scapegoat for the team's lack of winners, they will fail.

This weekend, all should be revealed. The Phillies do not have their best pitchers on the mound and they won't need to. The Phillies have the Mets' number and by the time the Mets leave Philly, that number will be 0, as in the number of wins they will have against the Phils. New York, since 1986 anyway, has been wannabes. They have had some mild success, but only due to a weak division. Now that their rivals have gotten better, they can be seen for what they are: a sub-.500 team that will fall short when the going gets tough.

Thank you and have a nice day.

The Phillies Vs. The Month of April

The Phillies cannot afford their typical April. Unlike last year, when they finished the first month of the season 15-13 as opposed to the 11-14, 10-14 they finished with in April of 2007 and 2006 respectively. Some believe that their first over .500 start in years and years helped propel them to a position to contend for the division title, and eventually overtake the Choke and Slide Mets. Going off on a quick tangent…They should call the Mets the New York Peanut Butter and Jelly Sandwiches….My father used to call (and now I call) PB&Js, choke and slides because you would choke on the PB, and the jelly would help is slide down the throat. Here the Mets choke on the field, and slide down the standings. In any case, let’s stay focused.
It’s no secret that the past two seasons have yielded some exciting September baseball in Philadelphia, and this season may prove to be the same way. It is unknown just where the Phils will stand come playoff judgment day and even though we would like to think that they’ll be headed into postseason play, there are no guarantees. So despite the fact that this is a long season, April becomes August very quickly and it is absolutely vital that they get as many wins under their belts as possible, regardless of the month.

The Phillies could rely on the Mets being in it and then falling apart at the end and that would be safe bet. However, there is no need for all the drama, no matter how captivating it might be. In reality, it might hinge on the bullpens. Last year the Mets had to be rescued from the walking blown save, Billy Wagner, while the Phillies got the most consistent guy in the majors, Brad Lidge, (for two fringe players) and took full advantage of him all the way through the World Series. Can he be Light’s Out Lidge again? Maybe. The Mets pen certainly got better with an overrated K-Rod and the guy who should be closing, Putz.

Then again, it could be the rotation that defines the winner. Or, for arguments sake, another upstart Marlins team could play spoiler. There could be injuries too. If either Cole Hamels or Johan Santana go down for any real amount of time, their respective pitching staffs become iffy.

That is why the Phillies have to be as far above .500 as possible by the end of April. Another start with fourteen or fifteen in the loss column and not only will they need guys like Chase, J-Roll, and Ryan Howard clicking on all cylinders, but the pitching staff will need to be closer to perfect. Needing Jamie Moyer to haul in another 16 wins is not what Philadelphia fans want to see. So while I am not scared after three games and a 1-2 record, I am cautiously nervous because I have seen this Philadelphia Phillies team do some great things, but I have also seen them very flat. And I fear, that this year, the season will go as April goes.

Breaking Down the NL East: Relief Pitching

Thirty years ago the use of relief pitchers was normally reserved for the eighth and ninth innings and even then those guys were hardly considered specialists as they could pitch 5 or 6 innings themselves. There weren’t the 7th inning setup guys to the 8th inning setup guys. There were relief pitchers and closers, and even then I can’t recall the term closer being used. But that was back when starters would pitch twenty complete games a year. Now, through a crack in the game’s evolution, starting pitchers are accustomed to believing that five innings means a quality start; the back four being left to the relief. And guys now make a good living pitching one inning, and sometimes one batter, every other game, making their roles on the team vital to its success. For my evaluation of the relief pitchers I took into consideration wins and saves versus ERA, WHIP, and Losses. I didn’t go into blown saves or holds since if a closer blows a save, they probably may have gotten a loss and that’s worse, plus blown saves in the seventh or eighth innings is plain stupid. Holds, on the other hand are a decent enough stat, ERA and WHIP will indicate just how they do well enough.

First (Score 3.55): The Philadelphia Phillies historically have had iffy relief pitching at best. Sure they’ve had bright spots here and there like Steve Bedrock Bedrosian, but generally guys like Roberto Horrendous Hernandez come to mind. Last year was a different story though, Brad Lidge was lights out, J.C. Romero and Ryan Madson at the end of the year was nearly as good. The role players of Scott Eyre, Clay Condrey, and Chad Durbin each played a major part in the team’s success. Right off the bat in 2009 Romero is on a fifty game suspension however his absence will hopefully be minimized with the addition of Jack Tascher, a replacement lefty if you will. No one expect Lidge to go perfect again this year, but he should be far off. The Phillies have a good group and if there aren’t any injuries, they shouldn’t lose more than a dozen games for the team.

Second (2.37): If I were going on last year alone I would have put the New York Mets relief staff at the bottom of the list and I don’t think there would be many complaints. Their relievers, especially loud-mouthed Billy Wagner is a big reason they’ve missed the post season. The addition of K-Rod is not a big as the addition of J.J. Putz who, in my opinion is a better closer, but who will be relegated to the setup role unless Rodriguez melts down. Keep in mind that K-Rod did blow nine saves (not calculated into the score), so Putz might be the closer at season’s end. The rest of the riff raff including Pedro Feliciano and guys named Sean Green, Brian Stokes, and Carlos Muniz will have to hold down the fort until the late innings when the real players can come in to pitch. Hopefully for the Mets they can get into the eighth with a lead.

Third (0.76): As a complete shock to me, the Washington Nationals ranks third in relief pitching. This is due to young pitchers last year doing a good job, unnoticed by nearly everyone in baseball, plus the addition of a solid vet Joe Beimel. Joel Hanrahan, who had nine saves last year, gets the closers job it would appear, by default. Saul Rivera, Steven Shell, Garrett Mock, and Julian Tavarez round out the rest of the core relievers on this Nationals’ team. Shell and Mock were rookies last year, looking to make a living in the major leagues. In order to do that, they will have to ensure that any lead (however rare) they have when the come into pitch, stays that way when they hand the ball over to Hanrahan. Washington won’t win many games on merit, so the relief pitching has to be adequate enough not to lose any leads they get.

Fourth (0.66): It has been my contention for years that Mike Gonzalez is an underrated closer. He has been stuck on win anemic teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates where save opportunities were not real forthcoming. Last year on the Braves, no one could lock down that closer role, and much like Hanrahan in D.C., Gonzalez will have the closer’s job by lack of competition. Manny Acosta, Blaine Boyer, Jeff Bennett, Buddy Carlyle, and Boone Logan make up the bulk of the rest of the squad, none of whom had an ERA under 3.50 last year. If they can keep the runs from scoring, then Gonzalez should have a career year in 2009. If the Braves are lucky, their pitching staff might get them a sniff of a possible postseason run.

Fifth (0.43) The Florida Marlins have found a way to remain somewhat competitive despite having guys with names you’ve never heard of, who have nothing real special to mention about them, and who may not make a roster elsewhere. Matt Lindstrom had five saves in 2008 and is the Fish’s closer. Kiko Calero, not to be confused with Kiki Vandeweghe was picked up from Oakland, and will provide some nice experience in the bullpen. The combination of Leo Nunez, Logan Kensing, Renyel Pinto, and Rick VandenHurk, who were a combined 10-8 with 0 saves, will be responsible for maintaining whatever leads the starting staff drops in their laps. Regardless, I can imagine them helping the Marlins to anything better than third place in the division.

Well, that’s it for this series. Thanks everyone for view, reading, and for the one or two comments I got from them. I hope I wrote without too much bias, even though I know some was blatant. It should be a great season, particularly if you are a Phillies fan like me, so it goes without saying….

Let’s look alive out there!

Breaking Down the NL East: Starting Pitching

Back in the 1980’s the NL East had some dominating pitching that mowed down opposing hitters. Steve Carlton began the decade for the Phils as one of the most intimidating southpaws in history and led into the phenomenon known as Doc Gooden. Gooden carried the Mets staff to a 1986 World Series Championship but was doomed due to his personal issues. The early 90’s saw the blossoming of the likes of Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, and Pedro Martinez to name a few. Today, Johann Santana and Cole Hamels lead the pack with young pitchers like the Marlins’ Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson look to come into their own. On the opposite ends of the spectrum are Jamie Moyer and the now older Tom Glavine, both in the twilight of their careers, yet somehow remaining effective enough to remain in the league. I evaluated the starters on various categories, putting the heaviest weight on wins, ERA, and WHIP creating a “productivity” number. Here are my rankings for the National League East’s Starting Staffs.

First (Score 2.57): The New York Mets would probably be lost without their ace, Johan Santana (pictured) as the rest of the staff is made up of a prospect coming of age (Mike Pelfrey), an inconsistent pitcher who can be really good or really bad (Oliver Perez), a once promising starter who was hindered by injuries (John Maine), and a journeyman now in his 13th year and 7th team (Livian Hernandez). Santana ranked the highest of all of the starting pitchers in the division. He brings up the team’s average in nearly every category leading the pack with a productivity number of 5.5. If his team will hit behind him, he may be odds on favorite to win the NL Cy Young award.

Second (2.25): The Phillies of 2008 were extremely fortunate that their pitching remained in tact last year. Brett Myers was sent down to the minors midseason and returned a solid No. 2 behind Cole Hamels (pictured), who for some strange reason received no run support from the league’s most offensive team. The ageless wonder of Jamie Moyer pulled together 16 wins and Joe Blanton came to the Phils via Oakland and went 4-0 before having the postseason of his life. Kyle Kendrick will not be on the starting staff this year and is replaced by Chan Ho Park for found his competitive edge after being banished to the bullpen for the past several years. JA Happ, who will/should start the year in the pen may be counted on to start as well. Hamels finished second in the division with a score of 4.19 and Moyer slipped into the fifth spot in the NL East at 3.25.

Third (2.14): This is not the same Atlanta Braves pitching staff that won so many division titles, so many games, and now is left to fill spots with quality arms with guys who have names like Jurrjens and Kawakami. Derek Lowe (pictured) anchors this group and will have to win twenty games if the Braves are to be on the winning side of .500. Javier Vazquez has hoodwinked another team into thinking he can help them win, despite a career 127-129 record. Jurrjens had a decent year as a rookie. Now that teams have a book on him, we’ll see how well he does in 2009. Kawakami is a Japanese import and my guess is that he’ll be somewhere between Dice-K and Hideki Irabu. The all familiar name of Tom Glavine rounds out the rotation and as long as he can be effective, they’ll keep the 42 year old on the team. His season last year though (2-4, 5.54 ERA in 63 innings), wasn’t a good sign for things to come.

Fourth (1.56): There are no Josh Becketts, A.J. Burnetts, or Brad Pennys on this Florida Marlins team, Dontrelle Willis is even gone. Some might ask who’s left to pitch. Well, that’s a good question. Ricky Nolasco (pictured) is a big league pitcher for sure as he went 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA last year and is young enough to expect improvement. After Ricky, there’s Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, Anibal Sanchez, and Andrew Miller. All young, all unproven. Given that the NL East is chock full of experienced hitters I’m unsure just how they’ll do. Marlins prospects seem to be unlimited in their ability to mature quicker than others, so maybe they’ll be ok. In reality, the offense will probably have to carry the load if Florida wants to finish even in fourth place in the division.

Fifth (1.06): The Washington Nationals’ pitching staff is hardly worth mentioning. That organization hasn’t had a decent pitcher since they were in Montreal. Now they’re going to throw John Lannan (pictured), Scott Olsen, Daniel Cabrera. They are decent, but I don’t know that they are anything other than fourth starters on much of the other staffs around the league. Then add Jordan (not Ryan) Zimmermann and Shairon (that’s a dude’s name) Martis and you are looking at a 100 loss season. Is baseball really back in the Nation’s capital? It is if you are counting the visiting team. I’m sorry D.C. fans for being harsh, but pitching is key in this game and the Nationals don’t have it.

All this of course is barring injuries which are key to the success or despair of any team. If Johan or Cole goes down, then the whole landscape changes. From top to bottom I think the Phillies have the best rotation and while the New York Mets don’t exactly have slouches, the staff will lead the Phils to their 3rd division title. Heaven forbid Mike Pelfrey be a bust for the Metropolitans, because if he is, or hits a sophomore snag, then everything will rest on Santana.

One more in the Breaking Down the NL East series….the bullpen.

Breaking Down the NL East: Rightfielders

In my humble and uninformed simpleton opinion, this year’s crop of NL East right fielders is the weakest of any and all positions with the possible exception of Catcher. On that note, there is an inkling of a potential star in Jeff Francoeur, but everyone else is slightly above if not average. Long gone are the days of Daryl Strawberry, Dave Justice and….and….Von Hayes? Boy that list went downhill fast. Boy, Bobby Abreu being one of the divisions best rightfielders of the past thirty years doesn’t say very much for the position. In any case, here is this year’s bunch of guys…in order of rank.

First (Score 1.875): Don’t let the score fool you. The Philadelphia Phillies' Jayson Werth is a good player, but he probably isn’t the best in this group. A serviceable fielder who became the starter following the departure of Bobby Abreu was a solid hitter with some pop in his bat. He hit career highs in dingers and RBIs, mainly due to the increase in playing time. I think he has consistency issues, but when he’s on, he’ll provide good protection to any of the lefties he hits behind. This year I project him to hit .285/21/73 as he’ll bat fifth or sixth depending on the opposing pitcher.

Second (2.5): The New York Mets’ Ryan Church has been in the league now for a couple of years and would be a good fourth outfielder for a contending team. Unfortunately for him and the Mets, he is the starting right fielder really due to a lack of options. As with leftfielder Daniel Murphy, his job this year is not secure by any means, and if either of these two should perform poorly early, then they just might get replaced. He has decent production when he plays, but playing will depend on his health and how he fares in April and May. I actually expect the Mets to make a trade for an outfielder sooner than later and Ryan might be the odd man out. It will be .275/15/53 for Ryan Church in 2009.

Third (2.875): Jeff Francoeur of the Atlanta Braves had a down year in 2008 and after two straight 100 RBI years in ’06 and ’07 finished with a mere 71 last season. Maybe it was the Andruw Jones factor and the added stress affected his game. Last year I would easily have put him first, and almost did this year, but I have a nagging feeling that ’08 was the real Francoeur. I’m not sure how much better he’s going to be since the lineup outside of Chipper and Brian McCann is mediocre. But for the time being I see him hitting .264 with 13 home runs and driving in 76 runs.

Fourth (3.5): When I first heard about Jeremy Hermida I though he was going to be the next star coming out of the Florida Marlins farm system, best thing since sliced bread. And he had a promising year in 2007. 2008 however was far from his coming out party. He had the same power numbers, but he couldn’t hit the .250 mark by season’s end. That’s o.k. if you are Ryan Howard hitting 45 round trippers, but if you are anyone else, you are a notch below average. This year he’ll need to do more since the Fish dropped more power off the pier and I think he will. He reach 18 home runs, 72 RBIs, and bat around .270 in 2009 for a Marlins team that will battle for the 3rd spot in the East.

Fifth (4.25): In his two part-time years in the majors, it is unclear just how good the Washington Nationals’ Elijah Dukes really is. The thing that has been holding him back in the past was his attitude and who knows if he can really exorcise whatever demons he has so that he can realize his full potential. But the “high risk” term is doubtful to leave him as he enters his second season in the nation’s capital. He does show some power and the ability to drive in runs, as long as he keeps his strikeouts down. Barring any injuries, I expect him do keep Austin Kearns out of a starting job; .257/18/62 for Elijah in 2009.

I might have done Jeff Francoeur some injustice here, but I don’t mind being wrong at any point. None of these guys have shown superstar potential and may wind up being nothing more than role players on their respective teams. I wouldn’t be surprised however if one or two of these guys aren’t replaced by midseason and I may have to revisit these projections then. This ends the projections for the position players. Next time I break down the NL East I will look at the starting pitching, then the relief crew to wrap up the series.

Breaking Down the NL East: Centerfield

The NL East Centerfielders are a varied bunch. There is a power hitting, run producing machine, a Flyin’ Hawaiian, and former prospect coming into his own, and two youngsters cracking a major league lineup. In this group, only really two stand out, with the potential for a third growing with each season. All five of these guys, however, will have something to prove this year. Here they are.

First (Score = 1.375): The New York Mets' Carlos Beltran has not provided the dividends that the team and its fans were hoping for. The idea of bringing him in, winning a bidding war and paying him a ton of money, was to get them over the hump and consistently into the playoffs. Well, that hasn’t happened once. It isn’t necessarily Beltran’s fault. He’s driven in over 110 runs each of the last three years, so he’s doing most of what he can. I say most because it doesn’t appear he has that intangible that turns a good player into a great player, a competitor into a winner. He is in essence a younger version of Bobby Abreu. This upcoming season it will be more of the same for Carlos. He’ll see .279/37/114 for a second place team.

Second (2.25): Before last season there were question surrounding the Philadelphia Phillies as to whether or not Shane Victorino could be an everyday outfielder but by the time September rolled around, there was no doubt that he was the best centerfielder the team had had since Lenny Dykstra. His series in the playoffs against Milwaukee was amazing, supplying the sparkplug that made the Phillies engine go. Last year on the whole he mixed some power with good speed and although he won’t be called upon to hit a grand slam, he will hit .284/10/47 in the second spot in the Phillies lineup in 2009.

Third (2.25): The National’s Lastings Milledge loses out to Victorino in a tie break mainly because of the impact each has made on their team and at this point in his career, Milledge has shown he can hit major league pitching but not be an integral part of a winning team. Milledge has a very nice junior year in the show hitting .261/14/61 and getting some full-time experience. Can he do it again? There is no reason to think otherwise. As long as he stays healthy, this year will tell whether he is doomed to mediocrity on bad teams or whether he is a star in the making….on a bad team. He will reach .255/16/59 this year as he comes of age as an average ballplayer.

Fourth & Fifth (4.375 & 4.625): The juries are still out on Atlanta Braves’ Josh Anderson and the Florida Marlins’ Cameron Maybin. They have played a combined total of 93 games in the majors and project so close to each other, I might as well surgically connect them at the hip. Both likely to hit just above the pitcher in the lineup, Maybin has the better shot at helping his team. With the Marlins pitching and the organizations propensity to field good young players (Uggla, Cabrera, Willingham, Beckett, & Willis just to name a few) Cameron will show why the Fish wanted him in that blockbuster trade that sent two Marlin stars to Detroit. This is not to say that the younger Anderson in the Brave outfield won’t have a chance to shine; I just expect Maybin to shine brighter a bit faster. Same projection for both, despite my obvious bias toward Maybin: .283/7/43.

I realize that in my opening paragraph I put Victorino in the same category as Carlos Beltran and that might have been getting ahead of myself. Beltran is a better all-round hitter, hands down, but what he brings to the Mets and what Victorino brings to the Phils cannot be compared, in my opinion. The two slot of the Phillies’ lineup is his and he is just about the perfect guy to hit behind Jimmy Rollins. He can be kind of a slacker at times, but the energy he brings to the everyday batting order is why he is more important to Philly than Carlos to NYC.

Breaking Down the NL East: Left Fielders

It’s been difficult to find time to complete my Breaking Down the NL East series, but I have managed to get to the left fielders, of which we have a couple of old guys, a couple of young upstarts, and a man who appears to be stuck, going nowhere in mediocrity. Garrett Anderson and Raul Ibanez move in from the AL West to try their hand at NL pitching, Josh Willingham has been unable to find his way off horrible teams, and Daniel Murphy and Cody Ross look to solidify themselves in everyday roles as each of their teams try to topple the Phillies. So, here is my ranking and projections of the NL East Left Fielders.

First (Score 1.625): Raul Ibanez has played on a team with some potential however the Seattle Mariners are struggling to find an identity outside of Ichiro. Now, with the Philadelphia Phillies, Raul has the opportunity to hit behind one of the most prolific power hitters in years and despite his age and contract, should be an upgrade over the departed Pat Burrell. Ibanez is unlikely to drive in as many runs as he had in Seattle, mainly because of the guys in front of him, but he should still protect Howard in the batting order. Again, aside from his age, the only other issue facing Ibanez, but really the Phillies in general; are the number of left handed bats that will be populating the everyday lineup. I see Raul hitting .290 and 27 home runs in Citizen’s Bank Park and driving 104 adding only more offense to the most offensive team in the league.

Second (2.625): This may be a bit of a surprise, but Cody Ross of the Florida Marlins has quietly become a solid major league hitter driving in 22 dingers and 73 RBIs in 2008. This year he should be a full time player and the only thing that will hold him back will be the other guys in the Marlins lineup. He has also been the most clutch performer in his short career, slugging over .600 with runners in scoring position. I don’t expect a drop off for Ross, but as he becomes the focus of opposing pitchers, he may have a hard time getting a pitch to hit. Cody is going to go for .284/33/86 in 2009 for an anemic offense.

Third (3.25): The Washington National’s Josh Willingham was a guy I had high hopes for a couple of years ago, but with an injury and really lackluster play, I’m afraid he has become simply an adequate player who is not going to wow anybody at this point. A platoon player on most teams, for the Nationals he will be a starting player. He comes in third here not for what he will potentially do as much as what he has done the past couple of years. Taking into consideration that he was hurt, he will see better offensive numbers, but I don’t project him having a blockbuster year like I would have back in 2006. The National left fielder will reach .271/24/80 and he will be happy he did.

Fourth (3.5): The new Atlanta Brave, Garrett Anderson was one of the Angel’s most consistent hitters in the last decade and was instrumental in getting the Halos their first World Series Championship. He is now, clearly, on his way out of the game as I think he was just looking for a place he can play everyday. His 3 year average of 16 home runs and 85 RBIs won’t blow anyone away in the NL East, but it should keep him in the top half of the batting order. That being said, he is not going to bring the glory back to Atlanta and he should probably be no more than a stopgap for a year or two until the Braves can find a younger replacement. He is projected right at his averages .283/16/83 because there is no reason to think otherwise.

Fifth (4.0): Daniel Murphy of the New York Mets could be the next Dale Murphy or the next Murphy Brown. It is just too soon to tell. But based on the short amount of time he got last year, he should be no less than a platoon player for the Metropolitans in 2009. He was decent in the clutch with anything less than two outs, but again, I emphasize that that could all change as he gains the major league experience. This year, I do expect him to struggle a little bit, especially if he starts off hot and opposing teams start gathering data on Murphy. Should that happen it will be interesting to see just what kind of hitter he can turn himself into. This season I don’t expect him to hit like Dale, but certainly better than a fictional television news anchor. Right now I will lowball him with .250/5/45, but that could get better with playing time.
This is not necessarily a weak group of left fielders, but it is not one that will be fighting for MVP votes to be sure. I am looking forward to seeing how well Murphy does in New York, although I would rather see him flounder than do well against the Phillies. Additionally interesting will be how well Ibanez fits into the Philadelphia lineup and if Cody Ross can continually build on his last three seasons to become the next Marlins player to get traded to a contender.

The Philadelphia Eagles and Free Agency: Two Days In

The first two days of free agency has passed and the Eagles went ahead and screwed up almost as much as they possibly could. Here is a breakdown of what has happened in relation to Philly and how it impacts the upcoming season.

First, we'll start with Sean Considine, backup safety and special teamer. He has agreed to terms with the Jacksonville Jaguars and will make three million over the next two years. The Eagles will really only miss him as a special teams player, as he was exposed way to often to keep him on the field for too many snaps.

Lito Sheppard is no longer an Eagle, and to be honest, he really wasn't an Eagle for the last 3 weeks of the season and the playoffs as recently re-signed Joselio Hanson moved ahead of him on the depth chart and left Lito the odd man out. He is still a good player, when he's a happy camper. The Birds really won't miss him too much and have three solid CB's. He was traded to the New York Jets for a 2009 fifth round pick and a conditional 2010 pick. He then signed a contract extension for four years and 27 million.

Correll Buckhalter was the first player from the Eagles roster to sign with the Denver Broncos. He signed a four year deal and is a contender for the starting job there in the Mile High City. He was totally underused by the Birds and he should be a lot happier lining up behind Jay Cutler and crew. This is a good signing for Denver and it leaves a gaping hole on the running back depth chart, even though the Eagles rarely use the running back to run the ball. I don't know if he ever get 1,000 yards but he'll get closer than he ever did in Philly.

Then there is Brian Dawkins. I am not going to go into too much detail here, but something will be coming. He officially signs with the Denver Broncos for 5 years and 17 million dollars, but more importantly, he will be receiving 7.2 million guaranteed.

So far, four players lost, one true impact (Dawkins).

The one player they picked up was offensive tackle Stacy Andrews, the older brother of Pro-Bowl Guard Shawn Andrews to a six year deal. He will make Jon Runyan's departure from the team official. For my feelings on this signing please read http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/352117-the-philadelphia-eagles-signing-stacy-andrews-is-a-ploy. Essentially, this signing solidifies two spots on the O-Line.

As far as rumors go.....L.J. Smith was supposedly visiting the Atlanta Falcons. The Eagles haven't been visited by TJ Houshmandzadeh. And there is still no word on whether the Eagles will/can resign blind side Tackle Tre Thomas. The Eagles also showed interest in former Arizona Defensive End Antonio Smith, but he is a new Texan. Anything other than that would be news to me.

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Breaking Down the NL East: Catchers

I should call Brian McCann Carl Lewis because he is the run away winner of the top catcher ranking in the National League East and possibly the best catcher in the NL altogether. While there may be some other able bodied backstops in the division, none have the offensive ability as McCann and none play such a large part in their lineup. A couple of these guys have been part-time players or really 2nd year guys with very little to show for their abilities overall. The group as a whole is rather underwhelming so it was not difficult to rank McCann….

First (Score 1.125): The Atlanta Braves catcher led in every evaluated category but one (slugging with RISP and two outs), and there he came in second. For the past couple of years he has been the best catcher in the division not even really getting any competition from guys like LoDuca, even when he was a bigger name. McCann has shown that he can hit for power and for a decent average solidifying himself alongside Chipper Jones as one of the main offensive threats on his team. This year he’ll go for .301/22/91 and surpass Chip as the big guy in the lineup.

Second (2.5): Who? Yes the guys name is Jesus, but can Flores be the savior of a lowly Nationals team? Last year he saw somewhat regular playing time and was able to put up decent number, .256/8/56 in 90 games. Over 162, he may post pretty respectable numbers especially when compared to the other offensively anemic catchers in the division, aside from McCann of course. He may also become one of the more vital bats in Washington’s lineup, but everyone will have to wait and see for sure. For 2009, I see a slight drop in power, but a better average: .262/6/41 for a guy who will find a secure spot on a team for the next few years.

Third (3.125): Another thorn in my side as somehow Brian Schneider of the New York Mets edges into third place. Consistently mediocre over the past couple of years Schneider is the prototypical plug and play player. He’s not a great offensive threat, nor does he have unbelievable defense, but he is reliable enough to keep his job in baseball. He has found a home in New York for the time being, but if anyone needs a catcher, Schneider’s name is going to come up in a trade rumor. He’s a good enough player to have on the roster however I don’t think he’s the answer to anyone’s catching dreams. This year will be much of the same for the Met backstop. .253/9/41 is what it will be in 2009.

Fourth (3.25): You wouldn’t know that Carlos Ruiz is required to start for the Phillies if you lived outside of the city of Philadelphia. He is possibly the best defensive catcher of this group, throwing out approximately a third of all base runners and handles all of the pitchers very, very well and that’s why he plays. He has no offense but came through when needed during the playoffs last year. As long as he hits a little bit above his weight, he will keep his job, well at least until the team gets a good look at Lou Marson. Ruiz is being projected at .224/4/36 as he sits in the eighth spot in the lineup. I would probably hit the pitcher ahead of him though.

Fifth (4.875): The Florida Marlin’s John Baker was a 27 year old rookie last year and performed admirably for a team who tried to beat expectations but found itself where it deserved to be, out of contention. He batted .299 with a .392 OBP in 61 games and although there are no guarantees that he can continue that on a full time basis, he has been around long enough that there should be much of a drop off. Next year he may be ranked second, but for the time being, I’m comfortable leaving him in fifth until he gets a full season under his belt. He should hit around .261/7/48 and if he does that he may find himself an honest to goodness big league baseball player.

Breaking Down the NL East: Shortstops

After going through the third basemen, I didn’t realize that the shortstop position would provide an even tighter race for the top spot in the ranks. But lo and behold, with Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, and Hanley Ramirez in the same division, who could expect anything less? More dynamic that the Utley/Uggla combination or the pair of Wright & Jones, these three guys play such a catalytic role in their team’s success that to remove one from the lineup could hinder the possibility of a victory. So who came in first?

First (Score 1.875): Oh no! Of all the things that could happen, Jose Reyes wins a tie break with Hanley Ramirez. But it’s a good tie break dealing with the fact that Reyes has hit much better in the clutch over the past three years. Everything else is a near wash. Jose, in my opinion one of the most over rated player has hit .312 and slugged .598 for the Mets. I haven’t looked to see what his stats were in September during the great chokes of the 21st century, but ability to get on base and then steal them puts him in first. Yuck! In any case I expect him to hit around his three year averages at .294/15/66 as New York once again misses the playoffs.

Second (1.875): Forida’s Hanley Ramirez is considered by many, including myself, to be the best shortstop in the National League and with good reason. He has averaged 26 home runs over the past three years to go along with a .308 batting average and an ever increasing on base percentage. On a real team with some real stars batting behind him and you might find him putting up some really unreal numbers. Unfortunately for Hanley, he’ll have to get traded for that to happen. I see him hitting .306 with 33 home runs and 70 RBI for a pedestrian Marlins team in 2009.

Third (2.25): Jimmy Rollins of the Phillies had an unmatched 2007, but seemed to see his offensive prowess fall back in 2008. What he may do is anyone’s guess but as long as he remains healthy, he should hit more than 20 dingers and drive in 70 runs. I have him projected at .280/14/65 and that should be fine as long as the team wins. He has to get his OBP up and keep his mouth shut and he will continue to be a fan favorite in Philadelphia.

Fourth (4.25): There’s this guy, Yunel Escobar down in Atlanta who I’d swear I’ve never heard of in my entire life, despite the fact that he hit .288 with 10 round-trippers and 60 RBIs last year. Now that I have heard of him, he doesn’t seem half bad. He doesn’t seem half good either, but on a Braves team consisting of half good and not half bad players, he’ll fit right in. I initially had him projected as a relative poor hitter particularly since he didn’t play in 2006, but I expect him to hit .307 have 12 home runs and 65 RBI in 2009. Not so shabby for a guy named Yunel.

Fifth (4.75): The National’s Christian Guzman, a 2008 All-Star, is a good hitting shortstop with no power. He reminds me of the prototypical guy from the 1980, something out of the Ozzie Smith mold, just lacking crazy defensive skills. Whether he can maintain himself a good enough player to make the All-Star team again, even as the National’s lone representative, only means that the team is falling deeper and deeper into the shadowy cellar in the NL East. His 2009 projections of .312/6/39 will certainly not wow anyone, but then again does anyone on that team?

Breaking Down the NL East: Third Basemen

The NL East has arguably the best set of their basemen in the League, including its AL counterpart. It consists of two solid All-Star caliber players, a defensive whiz, one up and coming guy, and a no-namer. One is a borderline hall-of-famer. Another, should he keep on keepin’ on, has the potential to be enshrined as well. But this blog post isn’t about who may or may not be hall of fame material, no, this is about the NL East third basemen and where they rank in the division. So here goes.

First (Score 1.75): A winner of a tie break because of his overall performance at the position, New York’s David Wright is possibly the most offensive third baseman since, well, the guys that’s number two on this list. Averaging nearly 30 home runs and 116 RBI, he is a machine at the plate who makes an overrated Jose Reyes valuable as a run scorer. A really good hitter overall, he maintains a .300 average and a decent OBP. He has also been a done well in the clutch hitting .306 and slugging .510 with runners in scoring position. This year I project him to do much of the same, .306/33/122, as he continues to carve out an outstanding career.

Second (1.75): Chipper Jones, whether a left fielder or a third baseman, has to carry a team even despite any contributions from Brian McCann. Hopefully for Atlanta and Chipper, the Braves’ pitching will surprise the world and become the reincarnates of the early 90’s teams. Unlikely as it is, the Braves’ best shot at winning the division will Chipper and his ability to pound the baseball. If he manages to flirt with .400 late into the season, and stay healthy, the rest of the lineup will have plenty of opportunities to not be a detriment. While I don’t expect Chipper to hit .380, .350 is not out of the realm of possibility. I also expect him to maintain a nice output power, hitting around 23 dingers and driving in at least 80 RBI. It all depends on the rest of that lineup.

Third (2.875): Philadelphia Phillie, Pedro Feliz has had a steadily decreasing offensive output the last three years. That being said, he is probably the best defensive third baseman on the list and why his job is extremely secure in Philly as long as he can come back from his back problem. It’s almost a shame that his back can’t be blamed for an abhorrent on base percentage (.291 over the past three years). But despite that, onlookers need to understand that Pedro doesn’t need to be money at the plate. He’ll be batting seventh behind guys that will take care of all of the offense, as long as he covers the hot corner.

Fourth (3.625): A couple of years ago, I would have thought that the Nationals' Ryan Zimmerman would be pushing David Wright for the top spot on this list, but after a completely lackluster 2008 he will have to come out like gangbusters and totally annihilate opposing pitchers. Still considered by many to be a rising star in the league, he needs to prove that he can do it with RISP, particularly with two outs as he hasn’t hit better than .217 over the last two years. If he can come back to form, barring any lingering affects from a 2008 injury, I’m proposing that he will hit .280/16/75 this year, which may be low since he now has Adam Dunn behind him in the lineup.

Fifth (5.95): I would say that Don McPherson is going to be a horrible third baseman starting for a horrible Florida Marlins team, but that would be horribly premature and shortsighted. For years this team had young players come through for them and this guy might just be ready to break out. Who knows? He’s played a total of 128 games in his career and what better place to play and get experience than in front of 37 fans? Much like Andersen Hernandez, the second baseman of the Nationals, McPherson just doesn’t have the track record to warrant anything but fifth place on this list. I would be surprised if he hit anything more than the minimum to keep him in the show. He goes for .227/4/31 in my book.

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Breaking Down the NL East Second Basemen

The gap between 2nd basemen from top to bottom is wider than the Pacific Ocean. At the top you have two of the best second basemen in the league and at the bottom you have guys with names unrecognizable even by their own families. But for whatever reason, there they are. Whether some of these guys will still be there at the all-star break remains to be seen. One in particular, Andersen Hernandez for the Nationals, proved to be interesting to project and rank, mostly because the guy hasn’t had half a season worth of service. I’ve figured something objective out, so we’ll see how it works in the future for rookies and such. Below are the National League East Second Basemen in order of rank.

First (Score 2.125): Chase Utley, in Philadelphia, is coming into the season far healthier than he ended last season due to a torn labrum in his hip, and even though he may miss the starting lineup on Opening Day, he will be a force to reckon with upon his return to daily play. The All-Star has been preparing and undergoing extra rehab to regain top form and there is nothing to indicate that this will last past the second week of the season. If he is healthy, look out. He had a monstrous first half last year and it was obvious he wasn’t getting the same play out of his body once the injury occurred so opposing pitchers need to keep in mind: A healthy Utley makes him the most dangerous hitter in a scary lineup.I project Chase to .298/31/104, but I would expect his batting average to be around .310. His power numbers are pretty close to his averages healthy or not.

Second (2.75): I have heard Florida’s Dan Uggla called the poor man’s Utley and I think that’s a bit unfair. Despite a down year in 2007 Uggs has had a good three year stretch and could easily have been considered the best 2nd baseman had it not been for Utley. He also had the unfortunate incident at the All-Star game last year when his defensive ability completely melted down, but that aside, he does hit for good power, not so much for average. Uggla’s numbers are not that far off from Utley either and expect the Marlin to hit around 32 home runs, 91 RBIs, and hit for about .257 in 2009.

Third (3.75): This is the point where the NL East’s second basemen are mediocre at absolute best, and that begins with the Met’s Luis Castillo. Once a prime contact slap-hitter, Castillo has gone from a once promising hitter that could smack the ball to all fields to a one base wonder. Never being big on power, his style of hitting would have been fine for a team like New York who has Beltran, Wright, and Delgado to knock the ball out. Unfortunately for the Mets, Castillo has seen his RBI total drop from 49 to 28 over the past three years. They better have someone one the horizon ‘cause it’s not looking any better this year. Expect Castillo to hit only .253/3/30 this year, and I would say that is at best.

Fourth (4.375): Kelly Johnson should probably be ranked third, but it doesn’t really matter. He is going to fill in the second hole along the right side with Casey Kotchman for the Atlanta Braves in what may end up being one of the most offensively anemic infields in the league. The last two years for Johnson however have been pretty productive totaling 28 home runs and 137 RBI with a steady batting average. I can’t see him getting more than his 14 or so runs a year, not in an offense that will struggle to score runs. In fact, Johnson’s clutch numbers were bad last year as he hit only .220 with RISP with 2 outs. I’ll project him at .275/11/50 this year as he now becomes one of the offensive leaders on the Braves, by default of course.

Fifth (5.15): Originally I had no one able to score higher than a five in my calculations, but then I realized that there were going to be starters that have had little or no playing time, so I came to the conclusion that my system may not bode particularly well for rookies. But then what system does? The Nationals’ Andersen Hernandez would have outscored Chase Utley had I not factored in that Anderson had only played 63 games in his career. And while he may not be the slugger that the top two guys are he can easily finish ahead of Castillo should he be a decent enough player not to be sent back down to the minors. In any case, base on what I have read and the stats I have seen, the guys is a good contact hitter, but I expect him to bat no higher than eighth. My initial projections do not have him hitting a home run, reaching 20 RBIs, but hitting .343, however I think that .292/0/36, would be more realistic.

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Breaking Down the NL East: First Baseman

With the start of Spring Training, the gears that will become the 2009 baseball season begin to grind away. Before to long, Opening Day will be upon us and our dreams as fans will either start to take shape or become a nightmare, eroding our faith in our team and all that is good in our lives. So as a public service, I will address each position in the National League Eastern Division, one at a time in order to provide a relatively informative, if slightly biased opinion, on who has the best opportunity to succeed. To accomplish this, I have graded each starting player on each team based on several key stats and have deduced 2009 projections for BA/HR/RBI that should be spot on, if not way off. The players are listed in order of rank. The statistics used to determine rank are batting average, home runs, RBI, and OBP, compared to the Clutch hitting data of the Average and Slugging with RISP and RISP/2outs. This data was then placed into an equation that I made up off the top of my head. These are the NL East First Basemen

First (1.5 score): Ryan Howard of the Phillies last year saw a good drop in his batting average and that was due for the most part, to a dismal first half despite hitting 28 home runs and knocking in 84 RBIs. Everyone like to focus on his strikeouts, however, strikeouts do not represent the lack of offensive production. Even though he only batted .251 and struck out 199 times, I would gladly take the 48/146 that he provided any day of the week. More importantly he hit .352/11/32 (BA/HR/RBI) in September/October, when you really need your star to step up. He led the 2008 Phillies team into the playoffs, as he should. Howard is projected to hit around what he did last year and his home run and RBI totals are not too far off from the average of his last 3 years. I expect him to see .252/48/144 in 2010, unfortunately for opposing pitchers, his clutch hitting is only going to get better.

Second (2.5): Carlos Delgado in New York had a better 2008 than 2007. That being said, as Carlos goes so does the Mets. He has not been with runners in scoring position until there are two outs. The difference being more than 100 points (.530 vs. .639). He is still a legitimate threat in that Mets lineup, and as long as he remains healthy and they guys in front of him can get on base, then he should be as productive as he was last year as the Mets will/should be happy to stay in second place behind Philadelphia. Look for Carlos’s to hit .269/36/110 this year, not bad numbers for a guy on the downside of his career. We’ll have to wait and see if his teammate will do their jobs, and perhaps, just perhaps, the Mets will force the Phils to look over their shoulder.

Third (3.0): Jorge Cantu has had a roller coaster career changing teams, changing positions. This year he looks to settle in as the Marlin’s first baseman with the trading of Mike Jacobs to Kansas City. Now with a place, both city and position, to call home, Cantu can focus on his game. Last year he hit .277/29/95 for a young team where at 27, Jorge will be one of the elder statesmen. This year should only be better. He has shown that with an adequate numbers of at bats and with his health in good shape, his numbers will start to solidify to show an above average player. .273/27/85 is where he’ll be at season’s end. That RBI total should be higher but with Hanley Ramirez being the only real established hitter ahead of him, he’ll have to take advantage of every RBI chance he can.

Fourth (3.0): Casey Kotchman loses the tie break with Cantu by way of power and slugging. He is a good young player to came to the Braves via the Los Angeles California Angels of Anaheim and has established himself as a good hitting first baseman. He’s not the kind of power hitter Howard and Delgado are, but he has hit 11 and 14 in the last two years respectively, so some pop is there. I see him more in the Mark Grace mold though where he has a decent batting average and he doesn’t hurt an overall lineup that includes Chipper Jones and Brian McCann. Whether any of these guys will drive in 100 runs in 2010 is a big question mark, while Kotchman should be good for around 80 RBI. His projection figures out to be .282/15/79 as the Braves will have troubles keeping pace with Philadelphia and New York, especially when it comes to producing runs.

Fifth (5.0): Nick Johnson is a tough guy to rate, mainly because he hasn’t played the last couple of years. Now, with the National’s addition of Adam Dunn, it’s unclear whether Johnson will have any significant time this year either. Assuming he does play first base, and the Nationals play Dunn in left field, Nick Johnson has a long way to go to get back to the .290/23/77 he hit way back in 2006. Dunn would probably be rated 3rd in the division, essentially due to his power, while his batting average would be what is holding him back from getting any higher than three. But enough on Adam Dunn, I have listed Nick Johnson because he is a first baseman first (and because I did the math before the Dunn signing) and his projections are horrible .121/3/11 but may be more accurate since he may not see the field once again.

The analysis: I would happily post the excel spreadsheet I used to come up with my rankings/projections but it just wouldn’t come out right so I will try my best to explain it in such a way that is coherent and understandable by the general public. First, I weighted the last three years and used multiplying factors of .6 (for 2008), .25, and .15 for a total of 1.00. I then added up the sums of each stat (BA, HR, RBI, Avg-RISP, Slg-RISP, Avg-RISP 2 outs, and Slg-RISP 2 outs) and then divided by each players three year average in that statistic. I then took that number and multiplied it again against the sum and whammo, I got the projections for this year based on the last three. In most cases, it’s not to far off of the 3 year average but it does reflect an increase in some areas for some players. Okay, from there I ranked them one thru five and took the average of the regular stats (BA, HR, and RBI) versus the clutch stats and got the overall score. I wish there was a way to post it but that is the way it goes. We’ll see how it works out at the other positions and particularly with the pitchers, and hopefully, I’ll get it all done by Opening Day.

Brett Favre is a Muttonhead

Can the guy be relied upon to make a decision and stick with it? Not really, but Brett Favre at least didn't string the New York Jets along before letting them know that he's not coming back; well not for the Jets anyway. It's a shame, it puts the team in a situation where they need a QB for next year. They can get that through the draft, but will that guy really be any better the Kellen Clemens. The other guys they have on the roster, Brett Ratliff and Erik Ainge do not have starter-potential. That leaves free agency or trade, neither of which will give the Jets a franchise player, unless they trade for Matt Cassel in which bidding for his services will be expensive since signing him is automatically giving up your No. 1 pick to a division rival. In any case, the state of the team Brett is leaving is not better than when he left and it is arguable that he is abandoning a team that put all of their eggs in his baskett. Pity, but on the flip side, the Jets really should have seen it coming.